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Free AccessMNI DATA ANALYSIS: July Payrolls Rise 209k; Unemp Rate 4.3%>
--Stronger Than Expected Payrolls Follow +2k Revision To May-June Jobs
By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire, and Holly Stokes
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The July employment report released Friday,
which showed nonfarm payrolls rose by a stronger-than-expected 209,000
following a net 2,000 upward revision to May-June payrolls, will be
viewed by many as a sign of strength.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed that the unemployment
rate slipped to 4.3% from 4.4% in June, as expected. The labor force
rose by 349,000, household employment was up 345,000, and unemployed
total ticked up by only 4,000.
As a result, the labor participation rate rose by 0.1 to 62.9%
after rising to 62.8% in the previous month.
Within payrolls, there were notable gains posted for health care
(+40k), professional and business services (+50k), and food services and
drinking places (+53k). Retail trade payrolls were still soft, rising
only 1,000 in the month, but manufacturing payrolls rose by 16,000.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in July, as expected, after a
0.2% June gain. The 2.5% year/year rate in July the same as in June.
The earnings results in this month's report were also in line with
MNI's Reality Check survey of recruiters released Thursday that showed
there were signs of wage inflation, especially for jobs where there is a
shortage of skilled workers. MNI's Vicki Schmelzer wrote that companies
have been more willing to offer higher salaries to recruit talent and
raise salaries to prevent skilled workers from leaving.
Schmelzer's Reality Check stories also pointed out that hiring was
particularly strong in July for some industries, as companies started
their usual fall hiring earlier this year due to anticipated shortages.
Some companies noted their concerns of losing good workers to companies
like Amazon, which looked to hire 50,000 new employees in August, a fact
that should be reflected in next month's employment report.
The overall average workweek held steady at 34.5 hours, while
manufacturing workweek stayed 40.9 hours.
The Federal Open Market Committee, in its July 26 statement, again
pointed out that "job gains have been solid, on average, since the
beginning of the year and the unemployment rate has declined." Friday's
report seems to in line with that statement.
Also released Friday, the June trade deficit narrowed to $43.6
billion, smaller than the $44.1b gap expected. The May gap was revised
slightly smaller to $46.4b from the previously reported $46.5b gap.
The BOP goods gap narrowed to $65.2b in June, while the census
goods gap narrowed to $64.0b, slightly wider than the $63.9b gap in the
advance estimate. The chained goods gap narrowed to $61.0b from $62.8b
in May, putting the 2Q average at $62.5b vs $62.3b in 1Q.
There were smaller trade gaps with Canada, Mexico, the EU, and
Japan in June, but a larger deficit with China.
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$,MT$$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.