MNI DATA ANALYSIS: Nov Trade Gap Narrows; On Track for Flat Q4>

-UK Nov Total Trade Gap Stg2.904bn vs Stg3.037bn in Oct

By Laurie Laird and Jai Lakhani

     London (MNI) - The UK trade gap narrowed modestly in the month of 

November, leaving trade poised to exert a significant drag on 

the economy in the final quarter of the year. 

    The total deficit declined to Stg2.904 billion in the penultimate 

month of 2018, down from a revised Stg3.037 billion in October, 

compared to the MNI median forecast of a Stg2.8 billion shortfall.  The 

deficit was initially reported to have dropped to Stg3.3 billion in 

October. 

     Total exports rose by 0.4% to Stg53.952 billion in November, 

while imports increased by 0.1% to Stg56.856 billion.  

     Unless the trade gap falls to Stg2.8 in December, the fourth quarter deficit will exceed the 

third quarter shortfall of Stg8.783 billion and exert a negative 

influence on gross domestic product. 

     The third quarter deficit was revised downward from the 

originally-reported Stg9.783 billion. 

     The deficit in goods widened to Stg12.023 in November, from 

a revised Stg11.946 billion gap in October, compared to the MNI median 

forecast of Stg11.2 billion.  

National Statistics officials saw no evidence of stockpiling of food and 

pharmaceutical products, but noted that pharmaceutical exports increased 

in November.

     The trade gap in goods with the 27 other nations of the European 

Union rose to Stg8.098 billion in Noevember from Stg7.628 billion 

in October. 

     The non-EU trade gap narrowed to Stg3.925 billion in 

November from Stg4.318 billion the previous month. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]