MNI DATA ANALYSIS: Nov, YTD Net Borrowing Lowest Since 2007>

-UK Nov PSNBex Stg8.694 billion vs Stg8.860 billion Nov 2016

-UK Year-To-Date PSNBex -6.1% over 2016/17

-UK November net debt ex BoE 76.7.x% of GDP vs 80.2% in November 2016

By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham

     London (MNI) - UK public borrowing fell modestly in November, 

courtesy of a surge in tobacco duty, leaving November 2017 and 

year-to-date borrowing below the same period of 2016/17, giving 

Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond space to reach 

recently-tightened borrowing targets for the current fiscal year. 

     Excluding public sector banks, borrowing decreased to Stg8.694 

billion last month, from Stg8.860 billion in November of 2016, slightly 

above the MNI median forecast of Stg8.45 billion. 

     That left net debt, excluding the Bank of England, at 76.7% of 

gross domestic product in November, down sharply from 80.2% a year 

earlier.  

     Much of the fall in the debt-to-GDP ratio stems from the 

reclassification of English housing association debt, moving some 

Stg65.5 billion in debt from the public to the private sector. 

     Tobacco receipts leapt by Stg500 million to Stg1.1 billion, the 

highest recorded in the month of November, but below the Stg1.8 billion 

tobacco take in March of 2012. Tobacco receipts tend to rise in budget 

months, according to a National Statistics official. 

     Over the year to date, borrowing fell by 6.1% over the same period 

of 2016/17, to Stg48.1 billion, the lowest eight-month total since 2007. 

     That leaves the Treasury chasing a seemingly-obtainable borrowing 

target, even after the Office for Budget Responsibility reduced its 

2017/18 projection by Stg8.4 billion to Stg49.9 billion in the wake of 

the budget address on November 22. 

     The new target represents a slight increase of 2016/17 borrowing, 

which was revised downward to Stg45.5 billion from the 

previously-reported Stg45.7 billion. 

     Government interest payments have increased in line with inflation, 

with debt outlays rising by Stg500 million last month to Stg4.6 billion. 

However, that falls well below the Stg1.2 billion increase recorded in 

the year to October. 

     Over the first eight months of the financial year, index-linked 

debt payments have soared by Stg5.5 billion over the same period of last 

year, to Stg40.1 billion, according to the official. 

     Corporate tax receipts slipped for the fifth straight month, 

retreating by 0.5% to Stg4.2 billion. The official saw no underlying 

cause for the sustained fall in corporate taxes. 

     The central government net cash requirement rose to Stg12.263 

billion in November, from Stg9.679 billion in November of 2016. 

     Including public sector banks, public sector borrowing fell to 

Stg8.118 billion in November, from Stg8.284 billion a year earlier. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]