MNI DATA ANALYSIS: Oct Trade Gap Steady; Q3 Revised Lower>

-UK October Gap Stg1.405bn vs Stg1.141bn in September

-UK Q3 Trade Gap revised to Stg5.927bn vs Stg9.463bn previously

By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham

     London (MNI) - The UK trade gap rose modestly in the month of 

October, while the deficit for the third quarter was revised sharply 

lower, suggesting less of a drag on gross domestic product than reported 

last month. 

     Over the month of October, the total trade gap widened to Stg1.405 

billion, from a downwardly-revised Stg1.141 billion in August, compared 

to the MNI median forecast of a Stg3.0 billion shortfall. 

     Total exports rose by 1.1% to Stg53.669 billion in October, while 

imports increased by 1.6% to Stg55.074 billion. 

     Over the third quarter, the trade gap narrowed to Stg5.927 billion, 

an improvement from the Stg9.463 billion reported last month. That means 

that net trade had a neutral influence on gross domestic product in the 

third quarter, according to a National Statistics official. 

     Net trade subtracted 0.5 percentage points from total growth of 

0.4% in the third quarter, but monthly trade figures are not adjusted 

for price changes and are not directly comparable to data included in 

the calculation of gross domestic product. 

     Furthermore, early estimates of GDP are balanced to output, rather 

than expenditure, which could neutralise the effect of the improved 

trade position in the third calculation of GDP due later this month, the 

official added. 

     The deficit in goods widened slightly to Stg10.781 billion in 

October, from a revised Stg10.453 billion gap in September, compared to 

the MNI median forecast of Stg11.4 billion. 

     The trade gap in goods with the 27 other nations of the European 

Union rose to Stg8.399 billion in October from Stg7.460 billion in 

September.  

     The non-EU trade gap narrowed to Stg2.382 billion in October, from 

Stg2.993 billion the previous month. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]