MNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK April Retail Rebounds; Q1 Revised Higher>

-UK April total sales +1.6% m/m, +1.4% y/y

-UK April non-fuel sales +1.3% m/m, +1.5% y/y

-UK Q1 retail revised +0.1pp to -0.4%; to subtract 0.03pp from GDP

-UK April retail prices +2.2% y/y vs +1.9% in March

     By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham 

     LONDON (MNI) - Retail sales volumes rebounded smartly in April, 

after unusually-snowy conditions dented activity in March, while sales 

over the first quarter declined by slightly less than originally 

reported. 

     Sales volumes jumped by 1.6% between March and April, far exceeding 

the MNI median forecast of a 0.8% gain. On an annual basis, retail sales 

increased by 1.4%, beating the MNI median gain of 0.2%. 

     March sales were revised to show a 1.1% monthly decline and a 1.3% 

annual gain, slightly better than the originally-reported 1.2% monthly 

slump and 1.1% yearly gain. 

     That left sales nursing a 0.4% loss over the first quarter, a 

modest upward revision to the 0.5% drop reported last month. Retail 

sales shaved 0.03 percentage points from GDP in the opening three months 

of the year, unchanged from data reported last month. 

     Fuel sales leapt by 4.7% between March and April, after a 

weather-related plunge in March. Sales rebounded in most retailing 

categories last month, after heavy snowfall across much of the country 

dampened sales in all sectors, save department stores, in March. 

     Activity at household good stores rose by 2.5% in April, the 

largest increase amongst major retailing categories, lifted by sales of 

hardware paints and glass. 

     Excluding fuel, sales rose by 1.3% last month, or by 1.5% compared 

with April of 2017, above the MNI median forecast of flat on the month 

and a 0.5% annual fall. 

     Over the three months to April, total sales increased by 0.1%, 

after falling in the two prior periods. Despite the reversal, retail 

activity remains subdued, according to National Statisticians. "Over the 

longer-term, retail sakes growth has slowed considerably," said Rob 

Kent-Smith, Head of National Accounts. 

     The implied price deflator rose by 2.2% in the year to April, from 

1.9% in March, the first acceleration in retail price since last August. 

However, a 3.0% annual rise in fuel prices accounted for much of the 

uptick, with ex-fuel prices increasing by an annual rate of 2.0%, in 

line with the March outturn. 

     Over the year to April, internet sales fell by 1.4% in value terms 

to a seasonally-adjusted 17.3% of all sales, down from the record-high 

17.6% recorded in March. That's the first fall in internet sales since 

last September, but follows an unusually-high 2.3% jump in March. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]