MNI DATA ANALYSIS: UK GDP Solid in July>

-UK July GDP +0.3% m/m, +0.6% 3m/3m vs +0.1% m/m in June

     By Laurie Laird and Jamie Satchithanantham 

     London (MNI) - UK economic growth accelerated in the month of July, 

courtesy of a sharp rise in motor trading, lifting output to its 

quickest pace in nearly a year. 

     GDP expanded by 0.3% in the month of July, above the MNI median 

forecast of a 0.2% rise, after a 0.1% rise in June. 

     That took growth in the three months to July to 0.6%, the fastest 

pace since August of 2017, above the MNI median of a 0.5% gain, up from 

0.4% in the second quarter, with growth continuing to accelerate from 

the modest 0.2% pace recorded in the opening three months of the year. 

     Over the year to July, the economy expanded by 1.6%, well above the 

MNI median forecast of 1.4%, above the year-on-year growth rate of 1.3% 

recorded in June. 

     The dominant service sector accounted for the lion's share of the 

summer expansion, rising by 0.3% in July, accounting for 0.21 percentage 

points of growth, well above the MNI median forecast of a 0.1% gain. 

     The wholesale and retail motor trades jumped by 0.6% in the month 

of July, and by 2.4% in the three months to July over the previous 

quarter, contributing 0.23 percentage points to total growth. 

     A National Statistics official noted that the sector has been 

unusually volatile over the past seven months, due to changes in excise 

taxes. The ONS plans to examine the seasonal factors used to adjust 

motor trading over the next month. 

     Over the three months to July, the total service sector expanded by 

0.6%, the fastest growth since January of 2017. Services, which account 

for 79.6% of total output, contributed 0.45 percentage points to total 

three-month growth. 

     Industrial production increased by 0.1% between June and July, 

rising by 0.9% over the same period of 2017, falling short of the MNI 

median forecast of a 0.2% monthly increase and a 1.1% annual rise. 

     A 3.3% monthly rise in mining and quarrying accounted for much of 

the strength, after annual maintenance shut-downs for many North Sea oil 

and gas pipelines were brought forward to June and July. Over the three 

months to July, industrial production fell by 0.5%, after a 0.8% decline 

in the second quarter. 

     Manufacturing output continued to drag on total production, falling 

by 0.2% in July, for a 1.1% annual gain, compared to the MNI median of a 

0.1% month-on-month improvement and a 1.4% lift over the same period of 

2017. 

     The volatile pharmaceutical sector weighed on manufacturing, 

according to a National Statistics official, with total factory output 

falling by 0.5% in the three months to July. 

     Meanwhile, construction output rose by 0.5% in July, above the MNI 

median of a 0.3% gain, and by 3.3% in the three months to July, the 

fastest three-month pace since February of 2017. 

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]