MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Feb Business Inventories Rise 0.6%>

--Retail Inventories +0.4%, Unchanged From Adv Estimate 

--Total Business Inventories Excluding Retail Auto Up 0.5%

--Unpublished Retail Components -0.7%, MNI Calculation Shows

By Holly Stokes and Sara Haire

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of business inventories in February 

rose by 0.6%, as expected by analysts and the MNI calculation 

prediction, following the wholesale inventories report last Tuesday, 

as seen in the data released by the Commerce Department Monday morning.

     Retail inventories increased 0.4%, unrevised from the advance 

estimate published on March 28. Data from the wholesale inventory report 

showed a 1.0% rise in the month (largest percentage change since Oct 

2013), while factory inventories were up 0.3%. Since retail inventories 

were unrevised, this did not alter MNI's calculated expectation for a 

0.6% rise in business inventories. 

     According to an MNI calculation, if a 0.9% increase in motor 

vehicle inventories is excluded, business inventories would have been up 

0.5% in the month, slightly softer than the total. The increase in motor 

vehicles was revised up 0.1pp from the advance estimate. 

     After excluding the 0.9% increase for motor vehicle inventories, 

the remaining retail categories would have seen a 0.2% rise, unrevised 

from the advance estimate. There were gains in all retail categories, 

with the largest increase outside of motor vehicles being furniture 

(+1.0%) after falling 0.3% in January. 

     According to an MNI calculation, the unpublished retail categories 

were down 0.7%, following a 0.6% decrease in January. 

     February business sales saw a 0.4% rise, following a 0.3% decline 

in February, pushing the year-over-year up to a 5.8% increase. 

     Retail sales excluding food services posted a third consecutive 

decline, falling 0.1% in the month, while wholesale sales increased by 

1.0%, following a 1.5% decrease in January. Manufacturing shipments, 

which are equal to sales in this report, rose 0.2% in February. 

     Since both business inventories and sales rose in the month, the 

inventory-to-sales ratio remained at 1.35 in February. However, the 

ratio remains below the 1.37 level seen in February 2017, as sales have 

continued to outpace inventory growth over the last year. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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