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MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US February CPI On-Target +0.2%, Core +0.2%>

--Overall CPI Rises To 2.2% Y/Y, Core CPI Stays At +1.8% Y/Y
By Kevin Kastner and Holly Stokes 
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The February CPI data presented no real 
surprises, allowing analysts to turn their attention to Wednesday's 
retail sales report, data released Tuesday morning showed. 
--CPI ON EXPECTATIONS
     Overall CPI posted a 0.2% rise, as expected, while core CPI also 
came in at 0.2%, on expectations. One positive for inflation watchers 
was how close the overall came to being softer than expected. 
     Unrounded, the month/month rise for overall CPI was +0.15005%, 
close to being rounded down to a 0.1% increase. The unrounded increase 
for core CPI was +0.18176%. 
     Forecasts tend to be fairly accurate for CPI, as the previous four 
February releases have been correct for the overall number, so today's 
data confirm that trend. 
--YEAR/YEAR PRICES ROUGHLY UNCHANGED
     Overall, the data points to contained core consumer inflation, with 
the year/year rate remaining well below the 2% threshold, but it is 
creeping up closer to that point, as the skittish financial markets pay 
close attention. 
     The year/year rate for overall CPI ticked up to 2.2% from 2.1% in 
January, while the year/year rate for core CPI stayed at 1.8%, so 
markets will likely shrug this off and move onto the next key data 
point, retail sales to be released on Wednesday. 
--CORE MEASURES MIXED, ENERGY SOFT
     Within core CPI, owners equivalent rents rose 0.2%, while apparel  
prices jumped by 1.5%. There was some offset by declines in new and used 
vehicle prices and a small drop in medical care, particularly 
prescription drugs. 
     Energy prices rose by only 0.1% in the month after a 3.0% surge in 
January. Gasoline prices fell 0.9% and fuel oil prices fell by 3.6%, 
offsetting small price gains in electricity and natural gas prices. 
Excluding only energy prices, the February CPI would have been still 
been up 0.2%. 
     Food prices were flat in February, with food at home down 0.2% and 
food away from home up 0.2%. 
     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$] 

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