MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jan Business Inventories Rise 0.6%>

--Retail Inventories +0.7%, Lower Than Advance Estimate 

--Total Business Inventories Excluding Retail Auto Up 0.5%

--Unpublished Retail Components -0.3%, MNI Calculation Shows

By Holly Stokes and Sara Haire

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of business inventories in January saw 

a 0.6% increase, as expected by analysts and the MNI calculated 

prediction following the wholesale inventories report on Friday, data 

released Wednesday morning by the Commerce Department showed. 

     Retail inventories rose 0.7%, revised slightly down from the 0.8% 

in the advance estimate published on February 27. Already released data 

showed that wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in the month, while factory 

inventories were up 0.3%. The small revision did not alter the 

prediction from the MNI calculation for a 0.6% rise.  

     According to an MNI calculation, overall business inventories would 

have been up 0.5% in January if a 1.7% increase in retail motor vehicle 

inventories was excluded. This increase was unrevised from the advance 

estimate for motor vehicles.

     After excluding the 1.7% increase for motor vehicle inventories, 

the remaining retail categories combined for a relatively small 0.1% 

gain, lower than the 0.3% gain previously reported in the advance 

estimate. There were gains in all except furniture, home furnishings, 

electrical, and appliance stores, which fell 0.5% after seeing a large 

1.6% rise in December. 

     According to an MNI calculation, the unpublished retail categories 

were down 0.3%. This follows a 0.9% increase in December. 

     Business sales fell in January by 0.2%, however sales were up 5.7% 

year-over-year. This decline comes after December's 0.5% rise.

     Retail sales excluding food services posted a 0.1% decline in the 

month, while wholesale sales saw a larger decline of 1.1%. Manufacturing 

shipments, which are equal to sales in this report, provided some 

offset, rising 0.6% in January. 

     Since business inventories rose in the month and business sales 

fell, the inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.34 in January. However, the 

ratio is well below the 1.37 level seen in January 2017, as sales have 

outpaced inventory growth over the last year. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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