MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US January Payrolls Up 200k, 4.1% Rate>

--Stronger Than Expected Payrolls Follow -24k Revision To Nov-Dec Jobs 

--Participation Rate Held At 62.7% For The Fourth Month

--Hourly Earnings +0.3% After +0.4% in December, Y/Y Rate Now +2.9%

By Kevin Kastner, Sara Haire, and Holly Stokes

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The January employment report released Friday 

showed nonfarm payrolls rose by a stronger-than-expected 200,000 but 

followed a net downward revision of 24,000 in the previous two months, 

based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

     An MNI analysis had shown a tendency of analysts to overestimate 

payrolls in recent January reports, so the larger-than-expected reading 

breaks this trend. 

     There were larger payrolls gains for construction, leisure and 

hospitality, education and health services, and retail trade sectors, 

which were partially offset by soft readings for utilities, information, 

nondurable goods, and motor vehicles and parts. 

     Annual benchmark revisions to the establishment survey did little 

to alter the recent pattern of payrolls movements. September's hurricane 

effected data did see a downward revision to a 14,000 gain from the 

38,000 previously reported, however October did see a large 60,000 

upward revision, suggesting a quicker bounce back. 

--UNEMPLOYMENT RATE STEADY

     The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, for the fourth 

consecutive month. When seen unrounded, the rate increased in January to 

4.149% from 4.095% in December due to a proportionally larger gain in 

unemployment than the increase in household employment. 

     The labor force increased by 518,000 after increasing by 64,000 

last month. Household employment rose by 409,000 in January, while the 

number of unemployed increased by 108,000. The labor participation rate 

stayed at 62.7% for the fourth consecutive month. 

     Excluding the 2018 population control effect, the labor force would 

have been up by 185,000, employed would have increased by 91,000 and 

unemployed would have increased by 93,000. However, this had no effect 

on the participation rate, employment-population ratio, and the 

unemployment rate. 

--EARNINGS UP 2.9% Y/Y

     Average hourly earnings were up 0.3% in January, compared with a 

0.2% gain expected by analysts but matching the whisper number, 

following an upward revised 0.4% gain in December. The year/year rate 

rose to 2.9% in January. 

     The overall average workweek dipped to 34.3 hours in January from 

34.5 hours in December. 

     The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the government shutdown 

had "no discernable effects" on the major household survey measures or 

on nonfarm payroll estimates. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$,MT$$$$]