MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US January Ret Sales Above-Expected +0.2%>

--Retail Sales Ex. Motor Vehicle +0.9%; Ex. Mtr Veh and Gas +1.2%

--Downward Revisions To November and December Suggest Q4 PCE Revision

By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of retail sales posted a slight gain 

in January, up 0.2% vs the flat reading expected by the Bloomberg 

consensus and 0.1% gain MNI survey, but the first quarter started out 

below the previous quarter's average and downward revisions to November 

and December suggest a downward revision to fourth quarter PCE. 

     Sales excluding motor vehicle sales were well above expectations, 

rising 0.9% compared with an Bloomberg consensus of 0.3% and an MNI 

median of 0.2%. 

     Here are some of the key takeaways from the data released Monday:

     - The higher-than-expected readings came despite a 2.4% decline in 

motor vehicle sales and a 2.0% decline in gasoline station sales. 

Excluding those two factors, retail sales were up 1.2%. 

     - January control group sales rose 1.1%, when a 3.3% gain in 

building materials and a 0.7% in food services were excluded as well as 

the motor vehicle and gasoline categories, suggesting underlying 

strength, but these sales were still below the fourth quarter average. 

     - December sales were revised down to a 1.6% drop from the 

previously reported 1.2% decline, while sales excluding motor vehicles 

were revised down to a 2.1% drop from the 1.8% decline reported last 

month. Control group sales were revised down to a 2.3% drop from the 

1.7% previously reported. There were also modest downward revisions to 

November sales for these categories.

     - Jan retail sales were down 3.4% vs the Q4 average at an annual 

rate. Ex. mtr veh, retail sales were down 2.1% vs the Q4 average, and 

were down 0.9% ex. autos, bldg materials, gas, and food services, 

suggesting PCE growth was soft to start the year. However, the January 

data may have been impacted by the government shutdown and could see 

recovery in February and March.

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$]