MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Down 3,000 In March 2 Wk>

--Q4 Nonfarm Productivity Rises 1.9%, Unit Labor Costs Up 2.0%

By Kevin Kastner, Harrison Clarke and Shikha Dave

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The level of initial claims fell by 3,000 to 

223,000 in the March 2 week, just below expectations for a 225,000 

reading, while the first look at fourth quarter productivity showed a 

1.9% gain and unit labor costs rose 2.0%, data released Thursday 

showed. 

     The productivity and unit labor cost data were higher than 

expected and followed an upward revision to unit labor costs in the 

third quarter. Productivity growth was revised down in the third 

quarter.

     Here are some of the key factors from the data: 

     - The four-week moving average for claims fell by 3,000 to 226,250 

in the March 2 week after a decline of 6,750 in the previous week. If 

the headline holds steady next week, the average would fall by 4,000 to 

222,250 as a 239,000 level in the February 9 week rolls out. 

     - Unadjusted claims rose by 16,969, led by New York, which reported 

16,391 additional claims, likely due to the timing of mid-winter break. 

Continuing claims fell by 50,000 to 1.755 million in the February 23 

week, with the four-week moving average rising to 1.767 million. 

     - The slight acceleration in productivity growth resulted from a 

faster deceleration of growth in hours worked, though output growth 

slowed, as expected after the GDP report for the quarter. The 

acceleration in unit labor cost growth reflects a sharp acceleration in 

compensation, partially offset by the small bump up in productivity 

growth. 

     - Third quarter productivity was revised down to 1.8% gain from the 

previously reported 2.2% increase, while unit labor costs were revised 

up to a 1.6% increase vs the previously reported 0.9% gain. 

     - The year/year pace of growth for productivity rose to 1.8% from 

1.2% in the previous quarter, while the year/year pace of unit labor 

costs fell to 1.0% from 1.1% in the previous quarter. 

     For the full year of 2018, productivity was up 1.3% compared to a 

1.1% gain for the full year of 2017, posting the largest annual gain 

since a 3.4% increase in 2010. At the same time, unit labor costs were 

up 1.4% for 2018, compared to 2.2% for 2017. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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