MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 1,000 In Dec 22 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Down 4,750 To 218,000 

By Kevin Kastner

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 1,000 to 216,000 in the December 22 week, slightly above 

expectations for a 215,000 level but following an upward revision to the 

previous week's level, data released by the Labor Department Thursday 

showed. 

--CLAIMS TRENDING LOWER IN DECEMBER

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average fell by 4,750 

to 218,000 in the December 22 week.

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would fall by 4,250 as the 233,000 level in the November 24 week 

rolls out of the calculation. The data suggest a return to level seen 

prior to elevated levels seen throughout November.

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 12.3%, or 

31,492 in unadjusted claims, the beginning of an annual pattern that 

runs through early-January. Unadjusted claims actually posted a smaller 

increase of 11.7%, or 29,985, to 285,180. The current week's level was 

well below the 324,958 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS DIP MODESTLY

     The level of continuing claims fell by 4,000 to 1.701 million in 

the December 15 survey week, also down 4,000 from the 1.705 million 

level in the November 17 employment survey week. week. 

     Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose by 34,598 to 

1.757 million, but remained well below the 1.986 million level seen in 

the comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, fell by 1,000 to 1.676 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.2% in the December 15 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year 

earlier, reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is extremely 

low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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