MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 1,000 In Nov 3 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Down 250 To 213,750 

--Continuing Claims Fall By 8,000 To 1.623m In Oct 27 Wk

By Shikha Dave and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 1,000 to 214,000 in the November 3 week, slightly above 

expectations for a 213,000 level and showing diminishing signs of an 

impact from Hurricane Michael in Florida and Georgia, data released by 

the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

--FLORIDA, GEORGIA HURRICANE IMPACTS

     Unadjusted claims were down 1,496 in Florida and down 617 in 

Georgia, but could increase in the coming weeks as workers return to the 

affected areas. Still, it appears that the impacts from Hurricane 

Michael continue to fade. 

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average fell by 250 to 

213,750. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would rise by 1,000 as the 210,000 level in the October 13 week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a increase of 8.4%, or 

16,759 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually posted a increase 

of 7.8%, or 15,448, to 213,978. The current week's level was below the 

242,111 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS, 4-WEEK AVERAGE DOWN

     The level of continuing claims fell by 8,000 to 1.623 million in 

the October 27 week. This is the lowest level for continuing claims 

since the July 28, 1973 week when it was 1.603 million. 

     Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose by 2,953 to 

1.386 million, remaining well below the 1.632 million level seen in the 

comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, fell by 7,500 to 1.633 million, the lowest level since the 

August 11, 1973 week when it was 1.627 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 1.1% 

in the October 27 week, and is down from 1.4% in the same week a year 

earlier, reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is extremely 

low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]