MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Fall 8,000 In Sep 29 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Rises By 500 To 207,000

--Initial Claims Decline, But Hurricane Impacts Coming

By Shikha Dave and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

fell by 8,000 to 207,000 in the September 29 week, well below the 

216,000 level expected by analysts in an MNI survey, data released by 

the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     It is likely that the level of initial claims will rise in the 

coming weeks as the impact of Hurricane Florence is felt by displaced 

workers. The timing of their filings may be spread out throughout the 

weeks, rather than all concentrated in one week, as workers continue 

returning to affected areas. 

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average rose by 500 to 

207,000 in the September 29 week.   

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would fall by 500 as the 205,000 level in the September 1 week 

rolls out of the calculation, keeping the average below its year ago 

level. However, like initial claims, the average will also be impacted 

by the effects of Hurricane Florence in the coming weeks. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 3.5%, or 

6,227 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually saw a decrease of 

7.0%, or 12,358 to 165,215. The current week's level was well below the 

204,180 level in the comparable week a year ago, when the hurricane 

impact lingered. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS, 4-WK AVERAGE DECLINE

     The level of continuing claims fell by 13,000 to 1.650 million in 

the September 22 week. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims 

fell by 18,166 to 1.392 million, remaining below the 1.615 million level 

seen in the comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, fell by 15,250 to 1.665 million.  

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate stayed at 1.2% in 

the September 22 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year earlier, 

reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is particularly low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]