MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Rise 1,000 To 236,000>

--Initial Claims 4-Week Avg -1,250 To 236,750; Could Fall Next Week

--Core PCE Prices +0.1%, As Expected; Y/Y Rate +1.4%, Low Since Dec 2015

--Overall PCE Prices +0.1%; Remains +1.4% Y/Y

By Kevin Kastner, Holly Stokes, and Sara Haire

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment 

benefits rose by 1,000 to 236,000 in the August 26 week, as expected, 

following an upward revision to the claims level in the previous week, 

data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     In other data released at the same time, personal income was up 

0.4% in July, while nominal PCE was up 0.3%, and the core PCE price 

index posted a 0.1% gain. 

     The core price index's 0.1% gain was exactly as expected by 

analysts in an MNI survey, but the year/year rate slipped to +1.4% from 

+1.5% in June, hitting its lowest point since a matching 1.4% gain in 

December 2015. 

     The July rise in personal income was stronger than the 0.3% gain 

expected, while the reading for nominal PCE was slower than the 0.4% 

rise expected. 

     The overall PCE price index was up 0.1% in July, though energy 

prices posted a 0.1% decrease. The year/year rate for overall prices 

held steady at 1.4%, matching June for the lowest since 1.4% in 

September 2016. 

     The four-week moving average for initial claims, a better measure 

of the underlying trend of the data, fell by 1,250 to 236,750 in the 

August 26 week, a fifth straight decline and the lowest level since 

235,500 in the May 20 week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average will fall by 2,000 as the 244,000 level in the August 5 week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a very modest decrease of 

0.2%, or 469, in unadjusted claims in the week. Instead, unadjusted 

claims rose by 890 to 196,020. The current week's level was well below 

the 215,688 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

     The level of continuing claims fell by 12,000 to 1.942 million in 

the August 19 week, while the four-week moving average for continuing 

claims fell by 6,250 to 1.952 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.4% in the August 19 week for the 20th straight week. The current 

week's rate is down from 1.6% in the same week a year earlier. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     The 0.3% increase in current dollar PCE reflected a 0.6% rise in 

goods spending and a 0.2% gain in services spending. Durable goods PCE 

rose 0.6%, while nondurable goods spending rose 0.5%. 

     Real PCE was up 0.2% in July, with real spending on durable goods 

up 0.8% after inflation adjustment. Nondurables spending saw a 0.3% 

gain, while services spending was up 0.2%. July real PCE was up x.x% 

SAAR from the second quarter. 

     Wages and salaries saw a bump up of 0.5% as payrolls grew strongly, 

adding to strength in other income components. 

     Disposable personal income was up 0.3% in the month, while real 

disposable income was up 0.2%. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]