MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Rise 5,000 In Oct 20 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Unchanged at 211,750 

--Hurricane Impacts Can Be Seen in Both Florida and Georgia

--Durable Goods Orders Stronger-Than-Expected +0.8%; Ex Trans +0.1%

By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

rose by 5,000 to 215,000 in the October 20 week, right on expectations 

and showing signs of an impact from Hurricane Michael in Florida and 

Georgia, data released by the Labor Department Thursday showed. 

     Also released at the same time, durable goods orders posted a 

surprise 0.8% increase in September due to a gain in transportation 

orders, particularly the volatile defense aircraft category. 

--FLORIDA, GEORGIA HURRICANE IMPACTS

     Unadjusted claims were up 3,744 in Florida and 3,440 in Georgia, 

and are likely to continue as workers return to the affected areas. In 

contrast, claims in North Carolina and South Carolina declined further 

as the impacts from Hurricane Florence continue to fade. 

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average held steady at 

211,750 after increases in the previous four weeks. 

     However, if the number of headline claims does not change next week 

and there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the 

four-week average would rise by 2,000 as the 207,000 level in the 

September 29 week rolls out of the calculation. 

     While this would keep the average below its year ago level, the 

effects of Hurricane Michael in the coming weeks add some upside rise to 

both the headline level of claims and the four-week average. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected an increase of 1.2%, or 

2,310 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually posted an increase 

of 3.7%, or 7,008, to 197,509. The current week's level was below the 

216,004 level in the comparable week a year ago, even with the impact of 

Hurricane Michael. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS, 4-WK AVERAGE FALL

     The level of continuing claims fell by 5,000 to 1.636 million in 

the October 13 employment survey week, and are down 27,000 from the 

1.663 million level in the September 15 employment survey week, in 

contrast to a month-to-month gain for initial claims. This marks a new 

45-year low for the series. 

     Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose by 18,852 to 

1.370 million, remaining well below the 1.604 million level seen in the 

comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, fell by 6,750 to 1.647 million, the lowest level since the 

August 11, 1973 week. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 1.1% in 

the October 13 week from 1.2% in previous week and 1.4% in the same week 

a year earlier, reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is 

extremely low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

--DURABLE GOODS ORDERS SURPRISE

     Also released Thursday, durable goods new orders were stronger than 

expected, rising by 0.8% in September compared with the 1.0% decline 

expected. The key factor in the surprise gain was a rise in 

transportation orders, particularly defense aircraft orders, rather than 

the decline that analysts had predicted. 

     Outside of transportation, new orders were weaker-than-expected, 

rising by only 0.1% compared with the 0.5% gain expected. Still, the 

underlying trend remains positive with gains in nine of the last ten 

months. 

     The Commerce Department said that it could not quantify the impact 

of the recent hurricanes on the data. 

     Transportation orders rose by 1.9%, with motor vehicles orders up 

1.3% and defense aircraft orders up a surprising 119.1%. These more than 

offset a 17.5% decline in nondefense aircraft orders, which was expected 

by analysts, and a 17.8% decline in the unpublished transportation 

components. 

     Other orders categories were generally weaker. There were gains for 

primary metals, machinery, and the "all other durables category" that 

offset declines for electrical equipment and fabricated metals products. 

     Nondefense capital goods new order fell by 2.4% and were still down 

0.1% excluding aircraft, a second straight decline. 

     Durable goods inventories were up 0.7%, while shipments rose 1.3% 

and unfilled orders rose 0.8%. Nondefense capital goods shipments rose 

2.7%, but were flat excluding aircraft. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]