MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US Jobless Claims Rise 8,000 In Dec 15 Wk>

--Initial Claims Four-Week Average Down 2,750 To 222,000 

By Harrison Clarke and Shikha Dave

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Initial claims U.S. state unemployment benefits 

rose by 8,000 to 214,000 in the December 15 survey week, well below 

expectations for a 225,000 level, data released by the Labor Department 

Thursday showed. 

     The level of claims was down 11,000 from the 225,000 level in the 

November 17 employment survey week, a positive for the employment data. 

The level of claims was unrevised from the 206,000 level previously 

reported for the December 8 week. 

--CLAIMS TRENDING DOWNWARD

     A better measure for the underlying trend of the data is the 

four-week moving average for initial claims. The average fell by 2,750 

to 222,000 in the December 15 week, up by 3,250 from the 218,750 level 

in the November 17 week. 

     If the number of headline claims does not change next week and 

there are no revisions to data from the past four weeks, the four-week 

average would fall by 5,250 as the 235,000 level in the November 24 week 

rolls out of the calculation. 

     Seasonal adjustment factors had expected a decrease of 7.3%, or 

18,991 in unadjusted claims. However, claims actually posted a decrease 

of 3.7%, or 9,766, to 251,773. The current week's level was below the 

287,396 level in the comparable week a year ago. 

--CONTINUING CLAIMS RISE

     The level of continuing claims rose by 27,000 to 1.688 million in 

the December 8 week. Before seasonal adjustment, continuing claims rose 

by 55,343 to 1.705 million, remaining well below the 1.968 million level 

seen in the comparable week last year. 

     The four-week average for continuing claims, which tends to be a  

more reliable measure as continuing claims consistently fluctuate 

week-to-week, rose by 6,750 to 1.673 million. 

     The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held steady at 

1.2% in the December 8 week, down from 1.4% in the same week a year 

earlier, reinforcing that the level of insured unemployment is extremely 

low. 

     The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below 

that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are 

approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and 

labor force reentrants included in the monthly report. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]