MNI DATA ANALYSIS:US June Housing Starts Fall To 1.173m SAAR>

--June Building Permits Down 2.2% To 1.273m SAAR

--May Starts Revised Down To 1.337m From Previous 1.350m

By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The pace of housing starts fell by 12.3% to a 

  1.173 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in June, below 

expectations for a 1.320 million rate due to declines across the board, 

data reported by the Commerce Department Wednesday morning showed. 

     There were downward revisions to the starts pace in April and 

May.  

     Housing starts fell by 6.8% in the Northeast region, while starts 

fell 35.8% in the Midwest, fell 9.1% in South, and fell 3.0% in 

the West. 

     Housing starts of single-family homes fell by 9.1% in June after a 

5.1% rise in the previous month, while multi-family starts fell 19.8% in 

June, based on an MNI calculation. This followed a 4.0% rise in 

the previous month. 

--SINGLE FAMILY STARTS REBOUND IN JULY POSSIBLE 

     Building permits fell by 2.2% in the month to a 1.273 million 

rate after falling to 1.301 million in May. However, that was driven by 

multi-family homes. Homes permitted but not started rose 1.3% in 

June with single-family homes up 3.4%. 

     As a result, starts could see a rise in the coming months. 

Single-family permits authorized rose by 0.8%, while multi-family 

permits were down 7.6%. Additionally, the NAHB index for July reported 

on Tuesday showed no change in builder confidence. 

     The housing starts average pace for the second quarter was 1.262 

million, down from the 1.317 million first quarter average after all 

revisions were included. The second quarter permits pace, at 1.313 

million, was down from the 1.355 million first quarter average. As a 

result, it appears that residential fixed investment will be a negative 

factor for second quarter GDP. 

     Homes under construction were down 0.5%, while completions were 

unchanged, suggesting falling new home supply in the near term. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau (202) 371-2121 ** 

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