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MNI DATA ANALYSIS:US March Factory Orders Rise 1.6%>

--Factory Inventories +0.3%; Business Inventories Tracking +0.1%
By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of new factory orders saw a 1.6% 
increase in March, up seven of the last eight months, and rising higher 
than the 1.4% gain expected by analysts in an MNI survey, data released 
by the Commerce Department Thursday morning showed. 
     Inventories were reported to have increased by 0.3% in March. In 
addition to this, the Commerce Department's advance report on 
inventories showed a 0.5% increase for wholesale inventories and a 0.4% 
decrease for retail inventories. While these data are eligible for 
revision, the levels as they stand now, combined with the 0.3% rise in 
factory inventories, would result in a 0.1% rise in March business 
inventories when that report is released on May 15, an MNI calculation 
showed. The revised wholesale data for March will be released on May 9 
and could alter this projection. 
     The larger than expected rise in factory orders is in large part 
due to durable goods rising 2.6%, unrevised from the advance estimate. 
Durable goods have been up four of the last five months. Only adding to 
the rise in durable goods orders, nondurable goods orders saw a more 
mild 0.5% rise. 
     Leading the rise in the nondurable goods category was petroleum and 
coal products with a 1.5% increase following a 3.1% decline in February. 
Softening the increase, there were declines seen in textile mills 
(-0.3%), textile products (-0.5%), printing (-0.3%), and plastics 
(-0.2%). There were muted rises for most other categories, while paper 
products were flat in the month. Nondurable shipments are equivalent to 
orders in this report. 
     Factory orders excluding transportation only rose 0.3% in the month 
This follows the soft gains of 0.2% and 0.4% in February and January, 
respectively. Despite the muted gains in factory orders excluding 
transportation, this is the tenth consecutive month of gains. 
--RISING TRANSPORTATION ORDERS 
     Transportation orders for March rose 7.6% based on Thursday's data. 
All but one of the transportation categories were down, with nondefense 
aircraft and parts being the only driver of the gain for the month, 
rising 44.5%. The unlisted transportation components rose 2.4% in the 
month. 
     Nondefense capital goods new orders rose by 5.8%, however it was 
down 0.4% when excluding aircraft. Civilian aircraft capital goods was 
up 43.6% following a 50.2% increase in February. Total goods excluding 
defense and civilian aircraft was up 0.6%. 
--INVENTORIES AND SHIPMENTS RISE
     Overall factory shipments rose 0.4% in the month due to a 0.4% rise 
in durable goods shipments and the 0.5% gain in nondurable shipments. 
Nondefense capital goods shipments saw a rise of 2.1%, however were 
down 0.8% when excluding the aircraft component. 
     Since factory inventories rose by 0.3% in the month, compared with 
the 0.4% increase in shipments, these mild gains kept the 
inventory-to-shipments ratio at 1.35, making this the fifth consecutive 
month. 
     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$] 

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