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Free AccessMNI DATA ANALYSIS:US March Factory Orders Rise 1.6%>
--Factory Inventories +0.3%; Business Inventories Tracking +0.1%
By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The value of new factory orders saw a 1.6%
increase in March, up seven of the last eight months, and rising higher
than the 1.4% gain expected by analysts in an MNI survey, data released
by the Commerce Department Thursday morning showed.
Inventories were reported to have increased by 0.3% in March. In
addition to this, the Commerce Department's advance report on
inventories showed a 0.5% increase for wholesale inventories and a 0.4%
decrease for retail inventories. While these data are eligible for
revision, the levels as they stand now, combined with the 0.3% rise in
factory inventories, would result in a 0.1% rise in March business
inventories when that report is released on May 15, an MNI calculation
showed. The revised wholesale data for March will be released on May 9
and could alter this projection.
The larger than expected rise in factory orders is in large part
due to durable goods rising 2.6%, unrevised from the advance estimate.
Durable goods have been up four of the last five months. Only adding to
the rise in durable goods orders, nondurable goods orders saw a more
mild 0.5% rise.
Leading the rise in the nondurable goods category was petroleum and
coal products with a 1.5% increase following a 3.1% decline in February.
Softening the increase, there were declines seen in textile mills
(-0.3%), textile products (-0.5%), printing (-0.3%), and plastics
(-0.2%). There were muted rises for most other categories, while paper
products were flat in the month. Nondurable shipments are equivalent to
orders in this report.
Factory orders excluding transportation only rose 0.3% in the month
This follows the soft gains of 0.2% and 0.4% in February and January,
respectively. Despite the muted gains in factory orders excluding
transportation, this is the tenth consecutive month of gains.
--RISING TRANSPORTATION ORDERS
Transportation orders for March rose 7.6% based on Thursday's data.
All but one of the transportation categories were down, with nondefense
aircraft and parts being the only driver of the gain for the month,
rising 44.5%. The unlisted transportation components rose 2.4% in the
month.
Nondefense capital goods new orders rose by 5.8%, however it was
down 0.4% when excluding aircraft. Civilian aircraft capital goods was
up 43.6% following a 50.2% increase in February. Total goods excluding
defense and civilian aircraft was up 0.6%.
--INVENTORIES AND SHIPMENTS RISE
Overall factory shipments rose 0.4% in the month due to a 0.4% rise
in durable goods shipments and the 0.5% gain in nondurable shipments.
Nondefense capital goods shipments saw a rise of 2.1%, however were
down 0.8% when excluding the aircraft component.
Since factory inventories rose by 0.3% in the month, compared with
the 0.4% increase in shipments, these mild gains kept the
inventory-to-shipments ratio at 1.35, making this the fifth consecutive
month.
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.