MNI DATA ANALYSIS: US October Payrolls Up 250k, 3.7% Rate>

--Hurricane Impact Not Apparent In Data 

--Unchanged Unemployment Rate Reflects Rise In Both Employed, Unemployed 

--Hourly Earnings +0.2% After +0.3% in September, Y/Y Rate Rises To 3.1% 

By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The October employment report was much higher 

than expected, with nonfarm payrolls up 250,000 compared with the 

190,000 increase expected by analysts and the 180,000 gain expected by 

the whisper number, with a net zero revision in the previous two months, 

data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday showed. 

     Additionally, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in October on 

large gains in both household employed and unemployed, while hourly 

earnings were up 0.2%, as expected, to boost the year/year rate. 

     There was no discernible impact from Hurricane Michael, which 

occurred in the survey week. The response rate for both surveys were 

within normal ranges, the BLS said. 

--UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNCHANGED

     Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to stay at 3.7% in 

October. When seen unrounded, the October rate rose to 3.735% from 

3.683% in September, so on the high side of 3.7%. The labor force 

participation rate rose to 62.9% from 62.7% in September. 

     The labor force grew by 711,000 after a 150,000 rebound last month. 

Household employment rose by 600,000 in October following a 420,000 jump 

in September, while the number of unemployed rose by 111,000. 

--HOURLY EARNINGS AS EXPECTED

     Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in October after an unrevised 

0.3% gain in September. Before rounding, October hourly earnings were up 

0.183%, on the low side of 0.2%. 

     Hourly earnings now stand 3.1% above its year ago level, up from 

2.8% in September. The rise in the year/year rate was due in large part 

to base effects. Hourly earnings fell by 0.2% in October 2017 on the 

impact of the hurricanes following a 0.5% gain in September 2017. 

     Even at it's current year/year rate, wage growth is still lagging 

behind levels usually seen with this tight of a labor market. 

     The overall average workweek rose to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours in 

the previous month. The combination of payroll, earnings and hours 

worked should be very positive factors for personal income growth in 

October. 

     Private jobs were up 246,000, much higher than the 190,000 gain 

expected. Within payrolls, there were solid gains for construction, 

manufacturing, and health care, and smaller gains for other categories, 

particularly retail. 

--TRADE GAP WIDENS

     Also released at the same time on Friday, the international trade 

gap widened to $54.0 billion in September from $53.3 billion in August. 

Analysts had expected the gap to widen to only $53.5 billion based on a 

slightly wider advance goods trade gap. 

     Exports rose on industrial supplies and materials, autos and 

capital goods, while imports rose on capital goods and consumer goods. 

     The trade gap with China widened in the month to a record high 

$40.2 billion deficit, but there were narrower gaps with Canada, Mexico, 

and the EU. 

     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MT$$$$]