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--Durable Goods New Orders +4.5% vs +2.6% Expected
--Initial Jobless Claims +12k to 214k, Showing Little Hurricane Impact
By Kevin Kastner, Harrison Clarke, and Shikha Dave
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Second quarter GDP growth was unrevised from the 
4.2% pace in the second estimate, as expected, data released Thursday by 
the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed. 
     Likewise, the price picture was revised only modestly from the 
second estimate. The core PCE price index was revised up to 2.1% 
from 2.0%, but the year/year rate is still at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in 
the first quarter. 
     There were upward revisions to most of the major components, offset 
by a large downward adjustment to the decline in inventory growth.
     PCE growth was unrevised from 3.8% in the second estimate. The net 
export gap now stands at $841.0 billion, narrower than $843.7 billion 
gap in the second estimate. 
     Nonresidential fixed investment was revised up to a 8.7% pace from 
the 8.5% gain in the second estimate, but inventory investment was 
revised down to a $36.8 billion decline for the quarter from a $26.9 
billion decline in the second estimate. 
     Analysts expect Hurricane Florence to have a negative impact on 
third quarter growth, with a post-hurricane rebound in the fourth 
quarter barring any other major storms.
     As a result of the mix of revisions, real final sales of domestic 
product were revised up to a 5.4% gain from the 5.3% increase in the 
second estimate. Real final sales to domestic purchasers was revised 
up to 4.0% from the 3.9% rise in the second estimate. 
     Real Gross Domestic Income was revised down to 1.6% from 1.8% in 
the previous estimate and was down from a 3.9% gain in the first 
quarter. The average of GDP and GDI now stands at a 2.9% gain for the 
second quarter, down from 3.1% in the previous quarter. 
     Also released Thursday, durable goods new orders rose 4.5% in 
August, compared with the 2.6% rise expected due to a surge in 
transportation orders. Outside of transportation, new orders were up 
only 0.1%, below the 0.4% gain expected. 
     Transportation orders increased 13.0%, with nondefense aircraft 
orders up 69.1% and defense aircraft orders up 17.0%. Motor vehicle 
orders were down 1.0%, but the unpublished transportation components 
rose by 39.7% in the month. 
     Durable goods inventories were down 0.4%, while shipments rose 0.8% 
and unfilled orders rose 0.9%. Nondefense capital goods shipments rose 
3.0% and were up only 0.1% excluding aircraft. 
     Initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 214,000 in the September 
22 week after hitting a 49-year low in the previous week. The impact of 
Hurricane Florence is beginning to be seen in the data, though it 
appears that much of the effect is still to come.
     The four-week moving average rose by 250 to 206,250 in the 
current week, and is likely to rise further next week when a 205,000 
level in the September 1 week drops out.
     Continuing claims rose by 16,000 to 1.661 million in the September 
15 week, below the 1.710 million rate in the August 18 employment survey 
week. The impact of the hurricane should begin to be seen in this 
data series next week.
     ** MNI Washington Bureau: Tel. (202)371-2121 ** 
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MT$$$$]

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