MNI DATA F'CASTS: UK Oct Public Finances, Nov CBI Ind. Trends

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - On what will be the eve of Chancellor Philip Hammond's

Budget, Tuesday's figures will come too late to be incorporated into the Office

for Budget Responsibility's forecasts set for release alongside Hammond's key

statement.

     In September, PSNB-Ex came in at stg5.9bn. That was the lowest September

borrowing for more than ten years and meant that cumulative borrowing totalled

stg32.5bn at the halfway stage of the financial year. This was some stg2.5bn, or

7.2%, lower than this stage last year with the improvement mainly attributed to

stronger tax receipts. 

     Analysts see this trend of year-over-year deficit cuts continuing into

October with corporation tax receipts due to come in strong with companies

having paid the second of the year's four corporate tax instalments.   

     Of the analysts MNI surveyed, the median outlook for October's reading was

stg7.0bn, half a billion lower than than the stg7.5bn recorded last October. 

     This pattern is unlikely to persist heading into 2018, however, with a

repeat of the forestalling of dividend payments, which boosted receipts in the

first two months of this year, not on the cards next January and February.    

     Find below an MNI survey of analysts' expectations for October's public

sector finances data, due out Tuesday November 21.

------------------------------------

                                 Oct

                    Public Finances-

                             PSNB ex

                              stg bn

Date Out                      21-Nov

Median                           7.0

Forecast High                    8.0

Forecast Low                     6.5

Standard Deviation               0.4

Count                             11

Prior                            5.9

Barclays                         7.0

Capital Economics                7.0

Credit Suisse                    7.0

Investec                         7.2

JP Morgan                        7.3

Lloyds TSB                       6.7

Morgan Stanley                   6.5

Nomura                           6.5

Oxford Economics                 7.0

Pantheon                         7.5

RBC                              8.0

     Tuesday also sees the release of the CBI's November Industrial Trends

Survey (ITS). In October, the Total Orders balance fell back into negative

territory (-2) for the first time since last November though it did sit

comfortably above the series average of -14.  

     In recent months, the ONS procured hard data has recently recorded a

timely, much needed boost to the manufacturing sector(though offset by a further

weakening to the construction sector), closing the gap with the more soft data

surveys which have been more bullish for most of the year. 

     Since the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP data, industrial production

between Jul-Sep was revised upwards to 1.1% q/q from 1.0% q/q while the pace of

contraction in the construction sector was also also revised up from -0.7% q/q

to -0.9% q/q.

     Consequently, of the four analysts polled, three expect an immediate

bounce-back to positive territory with Nomura seeing the neutral-zero mark a

more realistic outturn. 

------------------------------------------------

                                             Nov

                    CBI Industrial Trends Survey

                                Total New Orders

                                       % Balance

Date Out                                  21-Nov

Median                                       3.5

Forecast High                                5.0

Forecast Low                                 0.0

Standard Deviation                           2.2

Count                                          4

Prior                                       -2.0

Barclays                                     4.0

Nomura                                       0.0

Oxford Economics                             3.0

Pantheon                                     5.0

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$,M$$CR$]