MNI DATA IMPACT: Canada Dec. Retail 0.0% Vs. Forecast +0.1%>

--2019 Sales of +1.6% Are Slowest Since 2009 Recession

By Greg Quinn and Anahita Alinejad

     OTTAWA (MNI) - Canadian retail sales stalled in December following 

a revised November gain that was the biggest in eight months.  

     Sales remained at about CAD51.6 billion in December while the MNI 

median called for a 0.1% increase. Statistics Canada also boosted the 

November sales gain to 1.1% from 0.9%, making it the fastest since 

March. 

     Excluding autos and parts, sales rose 0.5% in December, beating 

the 0.4% MNI median, and the November gain was also lifted to 0.5% from 

0.2%. 

     Auto sales fell 1.3% in December, giving back part of the 2.8% jump 

in November. That decline in autos offset a 3.8% rise at home 

improvement stores and a 0.5% increase at food outlets. Gasoline sales 

fell 2.3% even as prices climbed on the month. 

     Fourth-quarter sales declined 0.2%, reversing a 0.3% gain in the 

third quarter. It was the biggest quarterly decline in a year. 

     Sales for 2019 as a whole advanced 1.6%, the worst result since 

2009 during Canada's last recession when sales declined by 2.9%. Sales 

declined last year in energy-producing provinces Alberta, Saskatchewan 

and Newfoundland, while they gained in the manufacturing regions of 

Ontario and Quebec. 

     Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said last month the door is 

open to the first rate cut since 2015 on signs the economy may be 

entering a persistent slowdown as consumer confidence stumbles. Poloz 

said growth slowed to a 0.3% pace in the fourth quarter, and has also 

said cutting rates to boost growth must be weighed against the danger of 

adding to record consumer debts. 

     Sales rose in 7 of 11 subsectors representing 49% of retail trade 

in December. 

--MNI Ottawa Bureau +1-613-314-9647; greg.quinn@marketnews.com

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