MNI DATA IMPACT: Japan Q4 Capex Down; GDP Seen Revised Lower

--Japan Q4 Non-Financial Firm Capex -3.5% Y/Y; Q3 +7.1% 

--Japan Q4 Capex (Ex-Software) -5.0% Y/Y; Q3 +7.7% 

--Japan Q4 Capex (Ex-Software) S/A -5.0% Q/Q; Q3 Revised +0.2% 

--Japan Q4 Manufacturer Capex -9.0% Y/Y Vs Q3 +6.4% 

--Japan Q4 Non-Manufacturer Capex -0.1% Y/Y Vs Q3 +7.6% 

--Japan Q4 Non-Fnc'l Firm Current Profit -4.6% Y/Y Q3 -5.3%

     TOKYO (MNI) - Combined capital investment by non-financial Japanese

companies fell 3.5% y/y in Q4, slowing sharply from Q3's 7.1% gain, according to

a quarterly survey of major companies released by the Ministry of Finance

Monday.

     Following are the key points from the Ministry of Finance quarterly

Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry survey:

     --Capital investment by non-financial Japanese firms fell 3.5% y/y in the

October-December period, the first drop in 13 quarters following +7.1% in

July-Sept.

     --Capital investment plans in the current fiscal year were revised lower on

the back of the heightened uncertainty over the global economy and domestic

demand caused by the coronavirus outbreak.

     --Capex in the manufacturing sector fell 9.0% y/y in Q4 after a 6.4% gain

in Q3, while that in the non-manufacturing sector also fell 0.1% against a 7.6%

rise in Q3.

     --Capex excluding software dropped 5.0% y/y in Q4, decelerating from the

7.7% rise in Q3. Combined capital outlays (including software) fell a seasonally

adjusted 4.2% in Q4 after falling 1.7% in Q3.

     --The MOF survey, based on the demand side, is the key to calculating Q4

GDP revisions (due March 9). Capex in preliminary GDP, based solely on supply

side data, fell 3.7% on quarter and pushed total domestic output down by 0.6

percentage point.

     --Based on the MOF data on capex and inventories, the government is likely

to revise down its estimate of Q4 real GDP growth from the preliminary -1.6%

q/q, or an annualized -6.3%. GDP growth in the Q3 to +0.1% q/q, or an annualized

+0.5% in Q3.

     --Combined non-financial current profits fell 4.6% y/y in Q4, following a

5.3% fall in Q3. Current profits at manufacturers fell 15.0% y/y in Q4 vs -15.1%

in Q3, while those at non-manufacturers rose 1.1% vs +0.5% in Q3.

--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-2175-0040; email: hiroshi.inoue@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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