MNI DATA IMPACT: UK Nov GDP Falls, Suggesting Sluggish Q4>

By Laurie Laird and Irene Prihoda

     LONDON (MNI) - Gross domestic product slumped by 0.3% in November, 

suggesting a marked slowdown in the final quarter of 2019.

The following are the key points from the November GDP report published 

Monday by the Office for National Statistics. 

     - The economy slowed markedly in November, with a 1.9% rebound in  

construction activity providing the only real bright spark, contributing 

0.11 percentage points to total growth. 

     - Total output rose by just 0.6% over the same month of 2019, the 

slowest growth since June 2012, while the economy rose by 0.9% in the 

three months to November over the same period a year earlier.    

     - The data suggests a dramatic slowdown from the 0.3% growth 

recorded in the third quarter, despite upward revisions to the September 

and October monthly data. GDP must rise by more than 0.1% between 

November and December for Q4 growth to match its pace of Q3. The Bank 

of England forecast 0.1% growth in the closing quarter of the year, 

according to minutes of the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting. 

     - With consumer spending boosting the economy in recent months, 

economists may adjust Q4 forecasts after the release of retail sales 

data on Friday, particularly after industry reports of sluggish 

holiday activity. 

     - The service sector contracted by 0.3% in November, dragged lower 

by a 4.6% decline in the previously-buoyant film and television 

production sector. However, consumer-facing services, such as 

accomodation and food services recorded a healthy increase. 

     - Manufacturing continued to flag, declining 1.7% in November, 

dampened by the closure of autmobile assembly lines in the wake of the 

abandoned Brexit deadline of 31 October. 

     - Net total trade hit a record-high surplus of Stg4.031 billion in 

November, although the tally was heavily influenced by trade in 

unspecified items, particuarly non-monetary gold. However, similiar 

improvements in the trade position have been revised away over the past 

year.        

-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com 

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$,MAUDR$]