Free Trial

MNI DATA IMPACT: UK Nov GDP Falls, Suggesting Sluggish Q4>

By Laurie Laird and Irene Prihoda
     LONDON (MNI) - Gross domestic product slumped by 0.3% in November, 
suggesting a marked slowdown in the final quarter of 2019.
The following are the key points from the November GDP report published 
Monday by the Office for National Statistics. 
     - The economy slowed markedly in November, with a 1.9% rebound in  
construction activity providing the only real bright spark, contributing 
0.11 percentage points to total growth. 
     - Total output rose by just 0.6% over the same month of 2019, the 
slowest growth since June 2012, while the economy rose by 0.9% in the 
three months to November over the same period a year earlier.    
     - The data suggests a dramatic slowdown from the 0.3% growth 
recorded in the third quarter, despite upward revisions to the September 
and October monthly data. GDP must rise by more than 0.1% between 
November and December for Q4 growth to match its pace of Q3. The Bank 
of England forecast 0.1% growth in the closing quarter of the year, 
according to minutes of the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting. 
     - With consumer spending boosting the economy in recent months, 
economists may adjust Q4 forecasts after the release of retail sales 
data on Friday, particularly after industry reports of sluggish 
holiday activity. 
     - The service sector contracted by 0.3% in November, dragged lower 
by a 4.6% decline in the previously-buoyant film and television 
production sector. However, consumer-facing services, such as 
accomodation and food services recorded a healthy increase. 
     - Manufacturing continued to flag, declining 1.7% in November, 
dampened by the closure of autmobile assembly lines in the wake of the 
abandoned Brexit deadline of 31 October. 
     - Net total trade hit a record-high surplus of Stg4.031 billion in 
November, although the tally was heavily influenced by trade in 
unspecified items, particuarly non-monetary gold. However, similiar 
improvements in the trade position have been revised away over the past 
-London bureau: 44 (0) 203 865 3812; email: 

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.