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Free AccessMNI DATA IMPACT: UK Retail Up in Feb; Borrowing Falls>
By Shaily Mittal and Laurie Laird
LONDON (MNI) - The following are the key points from UK Retail
Sales and Public Sector Finance data published Thursday by the
Office for National Statistics.
- Despite the uncertinty of Brexit, UK consumers have
retained their nerve. Despite a 1.2% fall in food sales (just over a
third of total sales by volume), retail sales confounded expectations of
a decline, rising by 0.4% in February.
- Resilient consumer spending is poised to lift Q1 GDP. After
rising by 0.9% in January, sales volumes could fall by as much
2.9% in March and still leave Q1 retailing on par with Q4. Sales have
not fallen by such a magnitude since January 2010.
- Robust household spending contributed to a 5.7% rise in
Value-Added Tax receipts in the financial year to date, the biggest
increase since 2011/12.
- Strong VAT receipts exerted downward pressure on public
borrowing, which fell to Stg200 million last month, despite a Stg2.9
billion payment to the European Union, Stg1.0 billion above the
contribution a year earlier. The larger-than-usual remittance relates to
EU accounting protocols and applied to all countries in the bloc.
- Government debt, as a ratio to GDP, fell to 82.8% (including the
Bank of England), the lowest level since October of 2016. Excluding BoE,
net debt declined to 74.1% of GDP, lowest since May of 2012.
- Year-to-date borrowing plunged by 43.8% to Stg23.1 billion, the
lowest since the 2001/02 financial year. However, the Treasury is
unlikely to meet the OBR's target of Stg22.8, revised downward from
Stg25.5 billion last week. March borrowing has averaged Stg1.4 billion
over the past two years.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.