MNI DATA IMPACT: UK Retail Up in Feb; Borrowing Falls>

By Shaily Mittal and Laurie Laird

LONDON (MNI) - The following are the key points from UK Retail 

Sales and Public Sector Finance data published Thursday by the 

Office for National Statistics. 

     - Despite the uncertinty of Brexit, UK consumers have 

retained their nerve.  Despite a 1.2% fall in food sales (just over a 

third of total sales by volume), retail sales confounded expectations of 

a decline, rising by 0.4% in February.

     - Resilient consumer spending is poised to lift Q1 GDP. After 

rising by 0.9% in January, sales volumes could fall by as much 

2.9% in March and still leave Q1 retailing on par with Q4. Sales have 

not fallen by such a magnitude since January 2010. 

     - Robust household spending contributed to a 5.7% rise in 

Value-Added Tax receipts in the financial year to date, the biggest 

increase since 2011/12.

     - Strong VAT receipts exerted downward pressure on public 

borrowing, which fell to Stg200 million last month, despite a Stg2.9 

billion payment to the European Union, Stg1.0 billion above the 

contribution a year earlier. The larger-than-usual remittance relates to 

EU accounting protocols and applied to all countries in the bloc. 

     - Government debt, as a ratio to GDP, fell to 82.8% (including the 

Bank of England), the lowest level since October of 2016. Excluding BoE, 

net debt declined to 74.1% of GDP, lowest since May of 2012.

     - Year-to-date borrowing plunged by 43.8% to Stg23.1 billion, the 

lowest since the 2001/02 financial year.  However, the Treasury is 

unlikely to meet the OBR's target of Stg22.8, revised downward from 

Stg25.5 billion last week. March borrowing has averaged Stg1.4 billion 

over the past two years.