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Free Access**MNI DATA IMPACT: US March CPI As-Expected +0.4%>
--Core CPI +0.1% Vs +0.2% Expected, Owners Equivalent Rent +0.3%
By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The March CPI data were in line with
expectations, keeping year/year inflation near the FOMC's 2.0% target.
Overall CPI rose by 0.4%, as expected in both the Bloomberg and MNI
surveys, while core prices were up 0.1%, just below the 0.2% gain
expected.
Here are some of the key takeaways from the data released
Wednesday:
- One factor in the softer than expected core reading was a 1.9%
decline in apparel prices, the largest decline since January 1949. The
core reading rose 0.148% unrounded, so it was very close to being
rounded up to the 0.2% gain expected.
- As a result of the 0.4% rise for overall CPI, the year/year rate
rose to +1.9% from +1.5% in February. Excluding only energy, the
year/year rate would have been +2.0% and the year/year rate for core
prices fell to +2.0% from +2.1% in February, so the core measures are
very close to target.
- The major core components showed mixed readings. In addition to
the apparel decline, the large owners' equivalent rents category rose
0.3% and medical care was up 0.3%. New vehicle prices rose 0.4%, and
used vehicle prices were down 0.4%.
- Energy prices rose by 3.5% in March after a 0.4% gain in
February, with gasoline prices up 6.5%, the largest gain since September
2017. Electricity prices rose 0.4% and gas utilities prices fell 0.1%.
CPI excluding only energy was up 0.2%, while food prices were up 0.3% on
gains in most of the categories--meat being the exception.
- MNI analysis showed analysts tend to slightly overestimate March
core CPI, so today's data were in line with that trend.
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.