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**MNI DATA IMPACT: US March CPI As-Expected +0.4%>

--Core CPI +0.1% Vs +0.2% Expected, Owners Equivalent Rent +0.3%
By Kevin Kastner, Shikha Dave, and Harrison Clarke
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The March CPI data were in line with 
expectations, keeping year/year inflation near the FOMC's 2.0% target. 
     Overall CPI rose by 0.4%, as expected in both the Bloomberg and MNI 
surveys, while core prices were up 0.1%, just below the 0.2% gain 
expected. 
     Here are some of the key takeaways from the data released 
Wednesday: 
     - One factor in the softer than expected core reading was a 1.9% 
decline in apparel prices, the largest decline since January 1949. The 
core reading rose 0.148% unrounded, so it was very close to being 
rounded up to the 0.2% gain expected. 
     - As a result of the 0.4% rise for overall CPI, the year/year rate 
rose to +1.9% from +1.5% in February. Excluding only energy, the 
year/year rate would have been +2.0% and the year/year rate for core 
prices fell to +2.0% from +2.1% in February, so the core measures are 
very close to target. 
     - The major core components showed mixed readings. In addition to 
the apparel decline, the large owners' equivalent rents category rose 
0.3% and medical care was up 0.3%. New vehicle prices rose 0.4%, and 
used vehicle prices were down 0.4%. 
     - Energy prices rose by 3.5% in March after a 0.4% gain in 
February, with gasoline prices up 6.5%, the largest gain since September 
2017. Electricity prices rose 0.4% and gas utilities prices fell 0.1%. 
CPI excluding only energy was up 0.2%, while food prices were up 0.3% on 
gains in most of the categories--meat being the exception. 
     - MNI analysis showed analysts tend to slightly overestimate March 
core CPI, so today's data were in line with that trend. 
     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 
[TOPICS: MAUDS$,MT$$$$,M$U$$$,MAUDR$] 

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