**MNI DATA IMPACT: US Q3 Employment Cost Index Increases +0.7%>

--Wages Rise by 0.7%, Benefits +0.6% 

--Compensation Increases Across All Occupational Groups

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The Employment Cost Index ticked up to 0.7% in 

the third quarter, meeting the expectations of market forecasts, which 

had called for a 0.7% gain, data released Thursday by the Bureau of 

Labor Statistics showed. The year/year rate accelerated slightly to a 

2.8% growth rate. 

     At the same time, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) moved to 

0.2% from a 0.1% reading in August. Personal income matched market 

expectations at 0.3%, underscoring the overall increases in 

employee compensation reported by the ECI. Signals are mixed, however; 

with average hourly earnings plateauing at a high 0.4% since April 

2019 and an increase in jobless claims, the ECI's decelerated growth 

highlights a softening labor market.   

     Here are some of the key factors from the data release on Thursday: 

     - Both the quarter/quarter and year/year pace of growth rose 

modestly in the most recent quarter, with each moving up by 0.1%. This 

coincides with the steady wage growth seen in September and August. 

Analysts anticipate a slowdown in employment growth, but so far there is 

little significant negative pressure on the ECI and comparable measures. 

     - Along with the quarter/quarter stagnation, benefits moved 

similarly to 0.6% after second quarter readings of 0.5%. The year/year 

pace has remained unchanged at 2.3%, implying no significant increases. 

These numbers are lower than historical reports, but don't yet point to 

a downward trend. 

 - Among the occupational groups, civilian, private industry, and 

government workers all saw increases in total compensation. Again, 

year/year gains were small, with each occupational category seeing a 

0.1% bump in compensation. The construction industry saw a positive jump 

to 1.2% in compensation after a 0.8% reading for two consecutive 

quarters, the highest figure in the past nine quarters. 

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     ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** 

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