MNI DATA PREVIEW: April ISM Mfg Seen Unch, But Downside Risks

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The ISM manufacturing index is expected to be unchanged

from the reading of 55.3 in March based on an MNI forecast and to dip only

slightly to 55.0 according to a Bloomberg survey. This would be in line with the

flash Markit estimate, which was unchanged at a reading of 52.4 in April.

However, there are downside factors that are working against those forecasts.

     - Regional Data Decline. While the Markit index was unchanged, declines in

a number of regional indicators are negative factors for the ISM reading, and

could result in a downside surprise. 

     - Overestimates Common For April ISM. Analysts have overestimated the

headline ISM index in April in each of the last four year. Following the

underestimate in March, it's possible that analysts will aim to high this month

and find themselves disappointed at another April result

     - Employment Measure Closely Watched. The ISM manufacturing employment

index rebounded solidly in the March report after dipping February, the same

pattern seen in overall nonfarm payrolls those two months. However,

manufacturing jobs moved opposite in the same months. Whether these can be

reconciled this month is worth watching, but regional data, including the MNI

Chicago report, point to a disappointment

     - Prices Paid Data Mixed. After two readings below 50 in January and

February, the ISM prices paid measure finally moved back into the 50s in March.

Regional data have been less indicative of a continuation of that trend in

April, with the regions, including the MNI Chicago report, pointing the

possibility of decline.

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MAUPR$,M$U$$$]