-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI DATA PREVIEW: Healthy Retail Sales Dragged By Soft Autos
By Sara Haire and Holly Stokes
HIGHLIGHTS:
-Retail sales expected to increase 0.3%, held back by softer auto sales after a
hurricane-driven surge.
-Ex-auto retail sales to rise 0.7% due to higher gas prices, iPhone sales, and
holiday shopping.
-Control group to show continued strength in consumption feeding into Q4 GDP.
WASHINGTON (MNI) - November retail sales are expected to post a 0.3% gain,
held back from a larger gain by a stumble in auto sales. Excluding motor
vehicles, analysts expect sales to post a healthier 0.7% rise.
--UPSIDE SURPRISE POSSIBLE
Over the past 20 years, November headline retail sales have been
underestimated eleven times and ex-auto retail has been underestimated 12 times.
This suggests the possibility of stronger-than-expected gains for both figures.
If analysts are right and there is a 0.3% gain in November retail sales,
barring no revisions to the October data, the year-over-year would be at 2.1% vs
the year-over-year last November of 3.7%, indicating analysts only expect mild
growth from last year compared to the year prior.
--SOURCES OF STRENGTH
Analysts expect gains to be led by gas station sales, with Morgan Stanley
estimating that gas stations sales rose by 4.2%. Societe Generale agrees that
gas station receipts should have received a healthy boost, based on the roughly
6.6% spike in seasonally adjusted November gas prices.
Analysts also point to iPhone sales as a possible source of strength.
Capital Economics notes that the model's November release should provide a
seasonally unaccounted for boost, given that new iPhone models are typically
released in September.
With Thanksgiving coming early this year, analysts expect holiday shopping
to show a boost in retail sales. CIBC believes that holiday shopping was boosted
by a rise in income, given the November payroll report. BMO also expects holiday
gains, pointing to the Redbook report of same store sales being up 4.8% y/y in
the final week of November, matching the 3rd best end of November result since
at least 1996.
However, these expectations of boosted holiday shopping contradict the
Challenger job report, which stated hirings in the retail sector were expected
to cool off in November..
--DRAG FROM AUTOS
Offsetting some of this strength, auto sales continued to dampen in
November, after September's 15% hurricane-driven surge in real vehicle sales.
Analysts expect anywhere between a 2.7% to a 1% drop in auto sales to hinder an
otherwise strong month of retail sales. Excluding auto sales, analysts forecast
gains between 0.3% and 0.9%, with the median landing on a healthy 0.7% gain.
--IMPACT ON GDP
Disregarding the noisier auto, gas, and building material sectors, analysts
expect the "control" group" to post a 0.3% to 0.4% gain. This measure, which
feeds directly into consumption in GDP calculation, suggests to Credit Suisse
that real consumer spending has remained solid. CIBC echoes that a continued
rise in the control group means "consumption will again be an important
contributor to the roughly 3% GDP advance in the fourth quarter."
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 212-800-8517; email: sara.haire@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MAUPR$,M$U$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.