MNI DATA PREVIEW: No Strong Bounce Back Seen For Aussie Sales

By Lachlan Colquhoun

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australian retail sales fell sharply and unexpectedly in

April, down by 0.1% in seasonally adjusted terms following a 0.3% gain in March.

Other economic indicators have been soft, so the market is not anticipating a

strong recovery this month amid talk of a "retail recession" and anaemic

consumer spending. 

     Here are the key points to look for in the release by the Australian Bureau

of Statistics on Thursday.

Non-food sales in a slump 

Non-food sales are seen as a more accurate measure of discretionary spending,

and fell by a greater 0.2% in April. This figure will be closely watched

tomorrow.

NSW and Victoria on the slide 

Sales in the most populous states NSW and Victoria both fell by 0.4% in April,

the first time they have been in negative territory since December. These two

states have been the hardest hit by the falls in the property market, but recent

home price data suggested that the market has found its floor.

Housing sector still in the doldrums 

Household goods retailing was in negative territory again, down a hefty 0.9% in

April and symptomatic of the stalling economy.

Recovery on the way? 

The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut official interest rates by 50 basis points

over the last two months. The cuts will not impact on the May retail sales

figures, but this will be a key metric over the remainder of 2019 as the success

of the RBA stimulus is assessed.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MALDS$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$]