MNI DATA PREVIEW: US April Retail Sales Seen +0.2%;Ex MV +0.7%

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Analysts are expecting retail sales to rise by 0.2% and

ex-motor vehicle sales to rise by 0.7% when the data is released Wednesday

morning, based on both an MNI survey and the Bloomberg consensus. Forecast

history shows a tendency by analysts to overestimate both April headline sales

and sales ex. motor vehicles.

--OVERESTIMATES COMMON FOR HEADLINE SALES

      Analyst forecast history shows a tendency to overestimate April headline

sales - out of 17 misses in the past 20 years, 11 have been overestimates.

However, as can be seen from the graph below, the magnitude of analyst misses

has been decreasing over time.

--DISAPPOINTING EX-AUTO SALES?

     Analysts also tend to show a similar bias toward overestimates for nonauto

retail sales. There have been 10 overestimates in the last 20 years vs seven

underestimates. The gap is even larger over the most recent 10 years, with six

overestimates and two underestimates.

--MARKETS VERY OPTIMISTIC +1.5% FORECAST

     In the past year, analyst estimates have been on target two times, and

markets have been on target only once. Markets tend to be more optimistic than

analysts, with seven overestimates and four underestimates in the past year,

compared with four overestimates and six underestimates by analysts over the

same period. Given that markets are expecting a 1.5% gain in headline retail

sales, which is much higher than the analyst forecast for a 0.2% gain, and the

market tendency to overestimate, we may expect markets to miss April retail

sales again to the upside.

--PRICES RELATE SURGE FOR STATION SALES SEEN

     After the price of gasoline posted 5.7% gain in April, gasoline station

sales are expected to make a positive contribution to headline retail sales, as

the two series track exceptionally well. This would make the third consecutive

gain in gasoline station sales in the past three months after seasonal

adjustment.

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MAUPR$,M$U$$$]