MNI DATA PREVIEW: US Dec Retail Sales Seen +0.3% Vs. Nov +0.2%

By Ryan Hauser

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - U.S. retail sales are expected to increase for the third

straight month as consumer spending continues to drive the economy amid steady

consumer confidence and stable inflation.

     December sales are expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month according to the

Bloomberg median, in a report set to be released Thursday by the Census Bureau.

Sales grew 0.2% in November and 0.4% in October.

     Last Friday's strong employment numbers alongside "sturdy" consumer

sentiment readings are expected to boost retail sales, according to Deutsche

Bank. Holiday shopping reports were also positive despite department stores

continuing to lose market share to non-store retailers, say analysts with TD

Securities.

     Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline expected to get a

substantial lift. Sales excluding motor vehicles are expected to increase by

0.5%, up from 0.1% in November, which would be the fastest since July. Sales

sales excluding motor vehicles and gas are expected to come in at 0.4% after

remaining flat in November.

     The expected uptick in retail sales should come as welcome news for the

Federal Reserve. At the Fed's most recent FOMC meeting held December 10-11,

meeting participants "observed that recent data on retail sales or motor vehicle

spending had decelerated slightly," according to minutes released earlier this

month. 

     The Fed's decision to cut rates three times over 2019 should also support

purchases according to the National Retail Federation. Fed officials are likely

to leave their current interest-rate policy unchanged unless there is a

"material change in their outlook for the U.S. and global economies," says the

NRF.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

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