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MNI DATA SURVEY: UK Average Weekly Earnings and Unemployment

MNI (London)
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 10:29 GMT May 14/06:29 EST May 14
By Jai Lakhani
     LONDON (MNI) - Median analyst estimates for UK average earnings show 3
month year-on-year growth at 2.9% for average weekly earnings that exclude
bonuses, which is slightly up from February's 2.8%, but see the figure including
bonuses growing at 2.7%, which is down from February's 2.8% growth figure. The
reason why this may be the case is, as MNI previously highlighted, the REC
Report on jobs which highlighted continued strength in permanent job hires along
with December's strong bonus month dropping out of the three-month average.  
     The ILO unemployment rate for March is anticipated by analysts as a whole
to remain unchanged from its February 3-month rate of 4.2%. This is despite the
weakness in GDP growth in Q1. Whilst labour market activity tends to lag
weakness in economic activity, the anticipation of Q2 unwinding the weather
effects of Q1 could mean the unemployment rate remains robust at what the Bank
of England believes is the natural rate of unemployment. 
                    Avg Weekly         Avg Weekly  ILO Unemployment
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Earnings  Earnings ex-Bonus              rate
                      3m % YoY           3m % YoY              3m %
Date Out                15-May             15-May            15-May
Median                     2.7                2.9               4.2
Forecast High              2.8                2.9               4.3
Forecast Low               2.6                2.8               4.1
Standard Deviation         0.1                0.0               0.0
Count                       11                 12                13
Prior                      2.8                2.8               4.2
Barclays                   2.7                2.9               4.2
Berenberg                  2.8                2.8               4.2
Capital Economics          2.7                2.9               4.2
Credit Suisse              N/A                N/A               4.2
Commerzbank                2.7                N/A               4.2
Investec                   2.8                2.9               4.2
JP Morgan                  2.6                2.9               4.2
Lloyds TSB                 2.6                2.9               4.2
Nomura                     N/A                2.9               4.2
Oxford Economics           2.7                2.8               4.1
Scotia                     2.6                2.9               N/A
Standard Chartered         N/A                2.8               4.2
Societe Generale           2.8                2.9               4.3
UniCredit                  2.6                2.9               4.3
     Employment change on a 3m/3m basis has a MNI median estimate reading of
115,000. Worth noting is that the data for employment change tends to be very
volatile which is evident from the standard deviation of the estimates at 33.4.
However, what is clear is that analysts as a whole anticipate the figure to rise
from a February reading of 55,000. 
                    Employment Change
-------------------------------------
                                3m/3m
                                '000s
Date Out                       15-May
Median                          115.0
Forecast High                   150.0
Forecast Low                     60.9
Standard Deviation               33.4
Count                               6
Prior                            55.0
Berenberg                       100.0
Capital Economics               140.0
Investec                         60.9
Lloyds TSB                      150.0
Scotia                          130.0
UniCredit                        95.0
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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