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MNI ECB Preview - April 2022: Be Prepared For A Hawkish Surprise

Be Prepared For A Hawkish Surprise

  • While consensus expects no material change in policy at the April ECB meeting, we believe that it is a close call and that markets should be prepared for a hawkish surprise.
  • Inflation has accelerated rapidly since the last meeting and waiting until September or later before starting to unwind negative rates feels like an exceptionally long time given the magnitude of recent inflation surprises and upside risks to energy prices.
  • If the GC does decide to hold fire in April this would merely up the ante on the June meeting, but could also mean that the ECB is left playing catch up should wage demands start to reflect higher spot inflation.
For the full publication, please see

ECB Preview April 2022.pdf

Central Bank PreviewHomepageECB - PreviewCentral Bank ReportsMarkets

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