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MNI ECB Preview - February 2022: ECBs Baseline Assumption Facing Increased Pressure

ECBs Baseline Assumption Facing Increased Pressure

  • Given the policy announcements in December, no material policy innovations are expected at the February meeting.
  • However, this week’s meeting will present a communication challenge for the ECB as it attempts to affirm the baseline scenario (subsiding inflation this year, no near-term rate hikes) at a time when the Fed and BoE have become more hawkish and inflation fears have been rising globally.
  • With that in mind, the ECB could opt to retain some optionality by stressing that inflation forecasts carry a high degree of uncertainty and that there are upside risks to inflation (perhaps citing the risk of persistent energy price pressures).
For the full publication please see:

ECB Preview February 2022.pdf

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