Free Trial
BTP TECHS

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows

USDJPY TECHS

Approaching The 50-Day EMA

LOOK AHEAD

UK Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

GILT TECHS

(Z2) Trend Needle Still Points North

LOOK AHEAD

Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times GMT)

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access
ed Pressure

MNI ECB Preview - July 2022: Tightening As Economic Headwinds Build

Tightening As Economic Headwinds Build

  • The ECB is likely to hike policy rates by 25bp in July as already telegraphed. While there does not appear to be enough momentum behind a larger move for now, it should not be discounted entirely. Indeed, it may prove easier to hike aggressively now, than attempt to do so later in the year should economic activity abruptly deteriorate.
  • The ability of the ECB to provide additional guidance on the path for policy rates from September onwards has become more challenging.
  • The ECB needs to credibly signal its commitment to rein in inflation at a time when it has fallen far behind its peers in tightening policy. However, pre-committing now to specific policy outcomes at future meetings when there is a growing risk of outright recession, would be a risky play from a credibility perspective.
  • We expect the ECB to reiterate that it anticipates a gradual but sustained path for further increases in policy rates, alongside being data dependent, while not providing any further specific rate guidance for now.
  • A sufficiently large (likely limitless) and flexible anti-fragmentation tool is expected to be announced at the July meeting. Delaying the announcement would be risky for spreads given the previous market disappointment at the unscheduled mid-June meeting for discussing fragmentation risks.
For the full publication, please see:

ECB Preview July 2022.pdf

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.