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MNI ECB Preview - July 2024: July Hold, September Cut

The ECB will leave policy rates unchanged in July, paving the way for a cut in September.

Central Bank PreviewHomepageCentral Bank ReportsMarketsECB - Preview

July Hold, September Cut

  • With no material developments on the data front since June and various GC members playing up the importance of quarterly projection meetings, the ECB will keep policy rates unchanged this week.
  • Although the ECB has previously shown that its data dependence and meeting-by-meeting approach has a degree of inbuilt flexibility (as was the case when steering markets to expect the June cut), there is no need to pre-commit to a September cut at this juncture.
  • Given the stickiness of domestic inflationary pressures – namely service prices – we continue to caution that a ‘one-and-done’ is a small, but still significant, risk for 2024.

ECB Preview July 2024.pdf

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July Hold, September Cut

  • With no material developments on the data front since June and various GC members playing up the importance of quarterly projection meetings, the ECB will keep policy rates unchanged this week.
  • Although the ECB has previously shown that its data dependence and meeting-by-meeting approach has a degree of inbuilt flexibility (as was the case when steering markets to expect the June cut), there is no need to pre-commit to a September cut at this juncture.
  • Given the stickiness of domestic inflationary pressures – namely service prices – we continue to caution that a ‘one-and-done’ is a small, but still significant, risk for 2024.

ECB Preview July 2024.pdf