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MNI ECB Preview: Policy Unchanged, But Risks of Communication Surprise

ECB
We've just published our preview of the December ECB meeting:
  • The ECB is unlikely to make any material changes to monetary policy at the December meeting.
  • The sharp fall in inflation and weak economic activity is increasingly at odds with the ECB’s more cautious stance towards policy easing.
  • We would expect the ECB to remain cautious for now with President Lagarde acknowledging the recent improvement in inflation, while stressing that discussion of near-term policy rate cuts are premature. The risk, however, is tilted in the direction of a dovish signal.

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