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MNI ECB Review - Sep 2021: Decision On Post-PEPP Policy Mix Deferred To December

The ECB announced a reduction in the PEPP pace at the September meeting, but deferred to December a decision on whether to continue to conclude PEPP beyond the scheduled expiry date.

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MNI ECB Review - Sep 2021: Decision On Post-PEPP Policy Mix Deferred To December

For the full publication please see:

ECB Review Sep 2021.pdf

The September ECB meeting played out largely as expected, with the Governing Council announcing a reduction in the PEPP pace for the fourth quarter, while the staff macroeconomic projections were revised higher. The forecast inflation trajectory has perhaps attracted the most speculation. On the one hand, the inflation forecast has been revised higher and President Lagarde for the first time acknowledged the risk of higher and more persistent inflation, while on the other the below-target medium-term projection suggests prolonged monetary accommodation. In any case, further cues will have to wait until December, when President Lagarde has indicated that decisions on the policy mix for 2022 (namely the continuation or conclusion of PEPP, the possible enlargement and enhancement of the APP and potential further TLTROs) will be addressed.