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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 23 Sep

The EU, Belgium, Germany and Italy to hold auctions, whilst the ESM and potentially Spain are likely to hold syndication
EurozoneGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - EurozoneGlobalStoryRegionMarkets
MNI (LONDON)
  • The EU, Belgium, Germany and Italy look to hold auctions, whilst the ESM and potentially Spain are likely to hold syndications in the upcoming week. 
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E35.3bln, up from E27.8bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees no redemptions while coupon payments for the week total E2.0bln, of which E1.9bln are France, E0.1bln are from the ESM.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E33.3bln, up from positive E2.1bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here: EZ240923.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • The ESM on Wednesday sent a Request for Proposal for an upcoming syndication. MNI looks for a E2bln WNG transaction in the upcoming week. We don’t have a strong view on the maturity.
  • The EU will kick off auctions on Monday. On offer is up to E2.5bln of the 2.875% Oct-29 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3L1CN4) and up to E2.5bln of the 4.00% Apr-44 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4EL9).
  • Also on Monday, Belgium will hold a conventional auction with a target range of E2.3-2.8bln. On offer are the 0.90% Jun-29 OLO (ISIN: BE0000347568), the 3.00% Jun-33 OLO (ISIN: BE0000357666), and the 2.75% Apr-39 Green OLO (ISIN: BE0000356650).
  • Germany on Tuesday will sell E4.5bln of the 2.70% Sep-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22064).
  • Italy will hold a BTP Short Term and BTPei auction on Wednesday. E2.25-2.75bln of the on-the-run 3.10% Aug-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005607269) will be on offer alongside E1.00-1.25bln of the 5-year 1.50% May-29 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005543803) and E1.00-1.25bln of the 15-year 2.40% May-39 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005547812)
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to sell E3bln of the 2.40% Nov-30 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU27006).
  • Italy on Friday will conclude the week’s issuance by holding a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction. Details will be announced Tuesday. We expect the on-the-run 5/10-year BTPs to be on offer: the 3.00% Oct-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005611055) and the 3.85% Feb-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005607970) alongside either the Apr-29 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005451361) or the Apr-32 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005594467).
  • We think there is a good chance for a Spain syndication in the W/C 23 September. Spain held syndications in September in 2021 and 2022 (20-year Green and 20-year conventional) and then in 2023 held a syndication in October (15-year linker). We don’t have a strong conviction surrounding the tenor of any remaining Spanish syndication this year, but pencil in a E5bln transaction.
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MNI (LONDON)
  • The EU, Belgium, Germany and Italy look to hold auctions, whilst the ESM and potentially Spain are likely to hold syndications in the upcoming week. 
  • We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week at E35.3bln, up from E27.8bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees no redemptions while coupon payments for the week total E2.0bln, of which E1.9bln are France, E0.1bln are from the ESM.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E33.3bln, up from positive E2.1bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here: EZ240923.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • The ESM on Wednesday sent a Request for Proposal for an upcoming syndication. MNI looks for a E2bln WNG transaction in the upcoming week. We don’t have a strong view on the maturity.
  • The EU will kick off auctions on Monday. On offer is up to E2.5bln of the 2.875% Oct-29 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3L1CN4) and up to E2.5bln of the 4.00% Apr-44 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4EL9).
  • Also on Monday, Belgium will hold a conventional auction with a target range of E2.3-2.8bln. On offer are the 0.90% Jun-29 OLO (ISIN: BE0000347568), the 3.00% Jun-33 OLO (ISIN: BE0000357666), and the 2.75% Apr-39 Green OLO (ISIN: BE0000356650).
  • Germany on Tuesday will sell E4.5bln of the 2.70% Sep-26 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22064).
  • Italy will hold a BTP Short Term and BTPei auction on Wednesday. E2.25-2.75bln of the on-the-run 3.10% Aug-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005607269) will be on offer alongside E1.00-1.25bln of the 5-year 1.50% May-29 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005543803) and E1.00-1.25bln of the 15-year 2.40% May-39 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005547812)
  • Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to sell E3bln of the 2.40% Nov-30 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU27006).
  • Italy on Friday will conclude the week’s issuance by holding a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction. Details will be announced Tuesday. We expect the on-the-run 5/10-year BTPs to be on offer: the 3.00% Oct-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005611055) and the 3.85% Feb-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005607970) alongside either the Apr-29 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005451361) or the Apr-32 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005594467).
  • We think there is a good chance for a Spain syndication in the W/C 23 September. Spain held syndications in September in 2021 and 2022 (20-year Green and 20-year conventional) and then in 2023 held a syndication in October (15-year linker). We don’t have a strong conviction surrounding the tenor of any remaining Spanish syndication this year, but pencil in a E5bln transaction.