MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - CAD Remains in Clear Uptrend
Price Signal Summary - USDCAD Remains in Clear Downtrend
- A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis firmed this morning with the break above both round number resistance at 5800 and the 0.50 projection for the Sep 6 - 17 - 8 minor price swing at 5818.12. Eurostoxx 50 futures have started the session strongly, reorienting focus on the September highs and bull trigger at 5024.00. It is still possible that recent gains are corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a downtrend.
- USDCAD remains in a clear downtrend and Tuesday's strong sell-off reinforces this condition. The pair has traded through support at 1.3441, the Aug 28 low. This breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5. A bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. GBPUSD started strong Wednesday before fading through the London close. The recent move higher resulted in a climb above key resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high. This breach confirmed a resumption of the medium-term uptrend.
- Gold bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the yellow metal has again traded to a fresh all-time high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. WTI futures are softer for a second session, reversing a large part of recent gains. This affirms the strength of resistance at the 50-day EMA of 72.25, which remains the key upside level.
- Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. The latest move down - a correction - has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. This does signal scope for a deeper retracement near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 133.71. The bull cycle in Gilt futures is fading further with yesterday’s 98.55 print marking seven consecutive sessions of negative closes. For now, key support at 98.11 remains intact.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
EURUSD TECHS: Off Highs, But Still Bullish
- RES 4: 1.1409 2.236 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 3: 1.1342 2.00 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
- RES 1: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
- PRICE: 1.1149 @ 08:43 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 1.1102/1029 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 3: 1.0940 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
The short-term outlook in EURUSD remains bullish, despite the fade off highs Wednesday. 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger, has been pierced. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and pave the way for a move towards 1.1234, a Fibonacci projection and 1.1276, the Jul 18 '23 high. Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 1.1102, it has been pierced but remains intact.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 1.3629 2.236 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3527 2.00 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3500 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 1.3430 High Sep 25
- PRICE: 1.3337 @ 08:50 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 1.3249/3202 Low Sep 23 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3052 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3002 Low Sep 11
- SUP 4: 1.2890 Low Aug 19
GBPUSD started strong Wednesday before fading through the London close. The recent move higher resulted in a climb above key resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high. This breach confirmed a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, reflecting a clear uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards the 1.3500 handle next. Initial firm support is 1.3202, the 20-day EMA.
EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26
- RES 3: 0.8444/64 50-day EMA / High Sep 12
- RES 2: 0.8410 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8381/8400 Low Jul 17 / Low Aug 30
- PRICE: 0.8344 @ 09:02 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 2: 0.8276 3.382 proj of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 ‘22
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
A bearish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s move lower plus Monday’s bearish start to the week, reinforces this theme. The cross recently breached 0.8400, the Aug 30 low, confirming a resumption of the bear cycle. Furthermore, 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and a key support, has been cleared, strengthening the bearish theme. Sights are on 0.8311 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8400, the Aug 30 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 147.21 High Sep 3
- RES 3: 146.72 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 145.57 High Sep 4
- RES 1: 145.17 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 145.16 @ 09:07 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 141.74/139.58 Low Sep 20 / 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 139.00 1.382 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.30 1.50 proj of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 2023
USDJPY traded higher last week and remains above its most recent low. However, short-term gains appear corrective. Trend signals remain bearish and the pair traded to a fresh cycle low on Sep 16. The recent breach of key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 139.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 20-day EMA has been breached, the next key resistance is 146.64, the 50-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Recovery Pierces 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 163.89 High Aug 5 and a reversal trigger
- RES 3: 162.89 High Sep 2 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 161.85 High Sep 26
- RES 1: 161.68 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 161.56 @ 09:08 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 157.05/155.15 Low Sep 18 / Low Sep 16
- SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 154.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
A bear cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective - for now. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Both the 20- and 50-day EMAs have been breached and this signals scope for a stronger recovery near-term, towards early September highs and an important area of resistance. A reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support at 154.42, the Aug 5 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.7029 High Feb 14 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6915 0.618 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 1: 0.6908 High Sep 25
- PRICE: 0.6858 @ 09:11 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 0.6792/6764 Low Sep 23 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6714 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6608 Low Aug 16
AUDUSD remains firm, with Wednesday’s pullback deemed corrective. The pair traded to a fresh trend high this week, today. Key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high, has been breached. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 5 and paves the way for a climb towards 0.6915, a Fibonacci projection. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 0.6622, the Sep 11 low. First firm support is 0.6764, the 20-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend
- RES 4: 1.3693 High Aug 19
- RES 3: 1.3647 High Sep 19
- RES 2: 1.3604 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3554 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3475 @ 09:13 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Aug 5 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD remains in a clear downtrend and Tuesday's strong sell-off reinforces this condition. The pair has traded through support at 1.3441, the Aug 28 low. This breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5. The move down paves the way for an extension towards 1.3358, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3554, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
FIXED INCOME
BUND TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 136.37 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 2 bear leg
- RES 3: 136.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 135.66 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 135.01/135.49 High Sep 24 / 11
- PRICE: 134.55 @ 07:07 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 133.92/71 Low Sep 20 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 132.65 Low Sep 2 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 132.25 Low Jul 29
- SUP 4: 131.66 Low Jul 26
Bund futures continue to trade below their recent highs. The latest move down - a correction - has resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. This does signal scope for a deeper retracement near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 133.71. Clearance of this average would undermine a bullish theme. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high.
BOBL TECHS: (Z4) Resistance Remains Intact For Now
- RES 4: 120.905 1.50 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 3: 120.722 1.382 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 120.496 1.236 retracement proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 120.230 High Sep 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 119.830 @ 07:13 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 119.575/340 20-day EMA / Low Sep 20
- SUP 2: 119.210 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - 11 rally
- SUP 3: 119.030 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 118.580 Low Sep 3 and key support
A bullish condition in Bobl futures remains intact, however, a short-term corrective cycle is potentially still in play for now. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch is 119.210, a Fibonacci retracement. The contract has recovered from its latest lows, a stronger bounce would expose key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.230, the Sep 11 high.
SCHATZ TECHS: (Z4) Trades Through Key Resistance
- RES 4: 107.450 1.00 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 107.300 0.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 107.207 0.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 1: 107.195 High Sep 24
- PRICE: 107.095 @ 07:15 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 106.913 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 106.815 Low Sep 18
- SUP 3: 106.675 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 105.520 Low Sep 3 and a key support
A bull cycle in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest pullback has been a correction. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a print above 107.155, the Sep 11 high and a key resistance. This highlights a resumption of the uptrend and a continuation higher would open 107.207, a Fibonacci projection. The recent pullback resulted in a print below 106.913, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would signal scope for a corrective retracement.
GILT TECHS: (Z4) Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 102.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 101.78 1.00 proj of the Sep 2 - 6 - 9 price swing
- RES 2: 101.06/101.54 High Sep 18 / 17 and key resistance
- RES 1: 99.82/100.39 20-day EMA / High Sep 19
- PRICE: 98.65 @ Close Sep 24
- SUP 1: 98.55/56 Low Sep 25 / 24
- SUP 2: 98.11 Low Sep 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: 98.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 97.30 1.236 Fibonacci retracement proj of the Sep 2 - 17 rally
The bull cycle in Gilt futures is fading further with yesterday’s 98.55 print marking seven consecutive sessions of negative closes. For now, key support at 98.11 remains intact for now, but the outlook would deteriorate on a confirmed close below here. For bulls, a clear reversal higher would refocus sights on 101.54, Sep 17 high.
BTP TECHS: (Z4) Within Range of Trend Highs
- RES 4: 122.78 3.236 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 3: 122.22 3.00 proj of the Jun 11 - 18 - Jul 1 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.59 High Sep 17 and key resistance
- PRICE: 121.02 @ 07:35 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 120.29/17 20-day EMA / Low Sep 19
- SUP 2: 119.32 Low Sep 9
- SUP 3: 118.85 Low Sep 4
- SUP 4: 118.16 Low Sep 2 and key support
The M/T trend condition in BTP futures is bullish and recent fresh trend highs this week reinforce this condition. However, the strong reversal from the Sep 17 high, highlights the start of a correction and a deeper retracement would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch is 120.29, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, 121.59, the Sep 17 high, is the bull trigger. A break resumes the uptrend.
EQUITIES
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z4) Strong Start
- RES 4: 5100.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5065.38 0.618 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 6 price swig
- RES 2: 5024.00 High Sep 3 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 5010.00 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 5008.00 @ 07:37 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 4848/4757.00 Low Sep 13 / Low Sep 6 and 10
- SUP 2: 4715.62 61.8% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 4642.76 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4586.00 Low Aug 6
Eurostoxx 50 futures have started the session strongly, reorienting focus on the September highs and bull trigger at 5024.00. It is still possible that recent gains are corrective. MA studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a downtrend. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key support at 4757.00, the Sep 6 / 10 lows. Key resistance is 5024.00, the Sep 3 high. A break would cancel a bearish theme and strengthen bullish conditions.
E-MINI S&P: (Z4) Trend Needle Continues To Point North
- RES 4: 5920.08 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 5868.50 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 2: 5861.53 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
- RES 1: 5823.00 High Sep 26
- PRICE: 5819.00 @ 07:41 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 5689.85 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5628.50 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 5500.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 5451.25 Low Sep 6 and a bear trigger
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis firmed this morning with the break above both round number resistance at 5800 and the 0.50 projection for the Sep 6 - 17 - 8 minor price swing at 5818.12. This confirms a resumption of the long-term uptrend. First key support is 5628.50, the 50-day EMA. Initial support lies at 5689.85, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES
BRENT TECHS: (X4) Extends Losses Below 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $82.10 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 3: $80.53 - High Aug 26
- RES 2: $77.46 - 50.0% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 1: $76.28 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $71.88 @ 07:57 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: $70.72/68.68 - Low Sep 26 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $67.63 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $65.95 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 4: $63.24 - 2.00 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
Brent futures have faded off recent highs and extended losses on the break through the 50-day EMA support. This confirms the latest recovery as corrective and the downtrend remains intact. Note that the recovery has allowed a recent oversold condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached. The next resistance to watch is $76.28, the 50-day EMA. The bear trigger remains $68.68, the Sep 10 low.
WTI TECHS: (X4) Fades Off 50-day EMA Resistance
- RES 4: $79.69 - High Jul 18
- RES 3: $77.70 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg
- RES 2: $76.40 - High Aug 26
- RES 1: $72.40/25 - High Sep 24 / 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $68.02 @ 08:04 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: $67.16/64.61 - Low Sep 26 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $63.89 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
- SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
- SUP 4: $57.07 - 2.2368 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
WTI futures are softer for a second session, reversing a large part of recent gains. This affirms the strength of resistance at the 50-day EMA of 72.25, which remains the key upside level. This price action confirms the recovery since Sep 9 as a correction. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A reversal lower would refocus attention on $64.61, the Sep 10 low and bear trigger.
GOLD TECHS: Continues To Appreciate
- RES 4: $2708.4 - 2.764 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 3: $2700.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: $2675.5 - 2.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing
- RES 1: $2670.6 - High Sep 25
- PRICE: $2657.6 @ 08:15 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: $2614.0 - Low Sep 23
- SUP 2: $2567.4/2511.1 - 20-day EMA / Low Sep 12
- SUP 3: $2502.9 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4 and a key support
Gold bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the yellow metal has again traded to a fresh all-time high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2675.5 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $2567.4, the 20-day EMA.
SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 3: $33.297 - 1.50 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.000- Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.282 - High Sep 25
- PRICE: $32.008 @ 08:17 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: $29.520 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $27.686/26.451 - Low Sep 6 / Low Aug 8
- SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
Bullish conditions in Silver remain intact and this week’s climb reinforces this set-up. The metal has traded through resistance at $31.754, the Jul 11 high. The break exposes the next key resistance at $32.518. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. A breach would open $33.880, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support lies at $29.520, the 50-day EMA.