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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 10 Feb

The Netherlands, Germany, Greece, Portugal, Italy are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week.
HomepageEurozoneGlobal IssuanceGlobal Issuance - EurozoneMarketsStory
  • The Netherlands, Germany, Greece, Portugal, Italy are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week, whilst the EU is scheduled to hold a syndication.
  • We also pencil in syndications from Belgium, Germany, Italy and Spain with possible transactions from France, the ESM and Slovakia.
  • We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E47.3bln, up from E24.7bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees no redemptions while coupon payments for the week total E0.4bln of which E0.2bln are from EFSF-bonds.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E46.9bln, vs positive E0.1bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here: EZ250210.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • The EU has a syndication scheduled for the upcoming week. We had been pencilling in a launch of a new 10-year EU-bond with either an October or December 2035 maturity. However, our conviction has reduced somewhat after the EU chose to reopen the current 10-year benchmark (the 3.00% Dec-34 EU-bond) at its auction on 27 January. This may indicate that a March launch could be possible for the new 10-year (rather than February). If we don’t see a new 10-year EU-bond launched, we think that the next most likely candidate would be a 20-year EU-bond maturing in 2045 (note that 2045 is one of only two years without an NGEU or SURE bond maturity).
  • On Tuesday, the Netherlands will hold an auction to sell E1.5-2.0bln of the 2.75% Jan-47 DSL (ISIN: NL0010721999).
  • Also on Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E5bln of the 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25042)
  • On Wednesday, Greece will hold a GGB auction. The details will be announced the preceding day. We note that Greece has reopened either a 5-year GGB or 10-year GGB at each of the last 16 auctions (every auction since July 2023).
  • On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to hold a 30-year Bund auction. E1.5bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) will be on offer alongside E1bln of the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004).
  • Also on Wednesday, Portugal will hold an OT auction for E1.25-1.5bln. On offer will be the 2.25% Apr-34 OT (ISIN: PTOTEWOE0017), the 1.15% Apr-42 OT (ISIN: PTOTEPOE0032) and the 1.00% Apr-52 OT (ISIN: PTOTECOE0037).
  • On Thursday, Italy will hold a 3/7 and 15-50-year BTP auction. Details will be announced on Monday 10 February. We expect a reopening of the 3-year 2.70% Oct-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005622128) alongside the 7-year 3.15% Nov-31 BTP (ISIN: IT0005619546) but we don’t have a strong conviction regarding the 15+ year BTP. We also note that there is a possibility that the 15+ year BTP auction is cancelled if we see a syndication earlier in the week.
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  • The Netherlands, Germany, Greece, Portugal, Italy are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week, whilst the EU is scheduled to hold a syndication.
  • We also pencil in syndications from Belgium, Germany, Italy and Spain with possible transactions from France, the ESM and Slovakia.
  • We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E47.3bln, up from E24.7bln this week.
  • The upcoming week sees no redemptions while coupon payments for the week total E0.4bln of which E0.2bln are from EFSF-bonds.
  • This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E46.9bln, vs positive E0.1bln this week.

For more see the full including an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks, see the PDF here: EZ250210.pdf

Supply Next Week

  • The EU has a syndication scheduled for the upcoming week. We had been pencilling in a launch of a new 10-year EU-bond with either an October or December 2035 maturity. However, our conviction has reduced somewhat after the EU chose to reopen the current 10-year benchmark (the 3.00% Dec-34 EU-bond) at its auction on 27 January. This may indicate that a March launch could be possible for the new 10-year (rather than February). If we don’t see a new 10-year EU-bond launched, we think that the next most likely candidate would be a 20-year EU-bond maturing in 2045 (note that 2045 is one of only two years without an NGEU or SURE bond maturity).
  • On Tuesday, the Netherlands will hold an auction to sell E1.5-2.0bln of the 2.75% Jan-47 DSL (ISIN: NL0010721999).
  • Also on Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E5bln of the 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25042)
  • On Wednesday, Greece will hold a GGB auction. The details will be announced the preceding day. We note that Greece has reopened either a 5-year GGB or 10-year GGB at each of the last 16 auctions (every auction since July 2023).
  • On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to hold a 30-year Bund auction. E1.5bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) will be on offer alongside E1bln of the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004).
  • Also on Wednesday, Portugal will hold an OT auction for E1.25-1.5bln. On offer will be the 2.25% Apr-34 OT (ISIN: PTOTEWOE0017), the 1.15% Apr-42 OT (ISIN: PTOTEPOE0032) and the 1.00% Apr-52 OT (ISIN: PTOTECOE0037).
  • On Thursday, Italy will hold a 3/7 and 15-50-year BTP auction. Details will be announced on Monday 10 February. We expect a reopening of the 3-year 2.70% Oct-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005622128) alongside the 7-year 3.15% Nov-31 BTP (ISIN: IT0005619546) but we don’t have a strong conviction regarding the 15+ year BTP. We also note that there is a possibility that the 15+ year BTP auction is cancelled if we see a syndication earlier in the week.