March 07, 2025 15:21 GMT
MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix – W/C 10 Mar
The EU is scheduled to hold a syndication in the upcoming week; Germany, Portugal and Italy are due to hold auctions.
The PDF contains an overview of the next 2 weeks of issuance, a recap of this week's issuance and tables showing cash flows over the upcoming weeks.
- The EU is scheduled to hold a syndication in the upcoming week, whilst Germany, Portugal and Italy are all due to hold auctions.
- We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E29.0bln, down from E42.9bln (ex retail operations) this week.
- The upcoming week sees redemptions of E35.8bln of which E17.5bln is from a former Schatz, E11.5bln is from a formerly long 15-year IGB and E3.5bln from a formerly long 5-year ESM-bond, E1.9bln from a formerly 2-year CROATE and E1.50bln from a formerly 10-year Croatia EMTN.
- Coupon payments for the week total E1.6bln of which E0.6bln are Irish, E0.4bln are German, and E0.2bln each are Greek, Croatian and Slovenian.
- This leaves estimated net flows for the week at negative E8.5bln, versus negative E4.5bln this week.
Supply Next Week
- The EU is scheduled to hold a syndication in the upcoming week. We see a good chance of a new 20-year EU-bond, maturing in 2045, with the EU’s biannual funding plan also highlighting the prospect of a new 3-year bond, but we think that may come later in H1.
- On Tuesday, Germany will sell E4.5bln of the 2.20% Mar-27 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22080).
- On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to issue E4.5bln of the 10-year 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z049).
- Also on Wednesday, Portugal will hold an OT auction for a combined E1.00-1.25bln. On offer will be the first reopening of the recently launched on-the-run 10-year 3.00% Jun-35 OT (ISIN: PTOTEAOE0005) alongside the 3.50% Jun-38 OT (ISIN: PTOTEZOE0014).
- On Wednesday, Italy will hold a 3/7 and 15-50-year BTP auction. Details will be announced Monday. We look for a final reopening of the on-the-run 3-year 2.70% Oct-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005622128), potentially alongside another 3-year BTP, but don’t fully rule out a new issue here. There is also the potential for a new 7-year BTP (possibly even as a syndication and cancellation of this part of the auction). The current on-the-run 3.15% Nov-31 BTP (ISIN: IT0005619546) already has E18.1bln outstanding with most recent issues not exceeding E19.5bln or so. We don’t have a strong conviction regarding the 15+ year BTP that would be on offer.
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