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MNI Employment Insight: Soft Payrolls Belies Further Tightening, Again

US

MNI has just published our review of the December U.S. Employment Report:

https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/documents/13408/US...


  • This includes our analysis of the report, showing various measures of labor market tightness.

Also included are sell-side takes:

  • All agree on the evidence of further labor market tightness, with the unemployment rate dropping further and strong wage growth failing to entice workers back into the labor force.
  • Of the four reviews, two have brought forward rate hikes (JPM shifts liftoff to March with four hikes in 2022, GS sticks with March liftoff but add a fourth hike in Dec) whilst the other two are either unchanged with liftoff in the “spring” (CIBC) or sticking with June but looking for signs of earlier action from Fedspeak this week (TD).

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