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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Broad Short Covering

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Broad Short Covering

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Broad Short Covering

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Widespread short covering last week (price increases, falling open interest) helped most European bond futures contract positioning move away from structurally "short" territory.
  • There are no longer any contracts in "very short" positioning (vs two "in our Oct 23 update).
  • A modest standout is Gilts which have dipped into structurally short territory vs flat previously.

Full PDF Analysis:

MNIPi6Nov2023.pdf

  • GERMANY: Schatz structural positioning remains short, but that contract is the only German non-mover in our latest update. Bobl has shifted to flat from very short, with Bund also flat, having been short in our last update. Buxl positioning has shifted to merely short from very short, and stand out among all contracts with trade last week indicative of long setting (short cover was seen in all others).
  • OAT: OAT contracts have moved to flat structural positioning vs short territory for most of the previous 3 months. Shorts covering was evident last week.
  • GILT: Gilt positioning is an outlier with a move into short territory after remaining very steady at flat since mid-September. That said, there was some short covering evident in last week's trade.
  • BTP: BTP structural positioning remains in short territory with minimal change since mid-October. As with elsewhere, BTP appears to have seen some short cover last week.



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