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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): German Shorts Stand Out

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): German Shorts Stand Out

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): German Shorts Stand Out

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • The rally in bond futures late last week following lower-than-expected US CPI sparked a round of short covering and long-setting across the European space.
  • However, structural positioning remains skewed to the short side (4 of 6 contracts in our matrix, with the other 2 being "flat"), with Germany now more short than Italy.

Full PDF Analysis:

MNIPi14Nov2022.pdf

  • GERMANY: Schatz has moved to the shortest in our matrix over the past two weeks, and Bobl and Bund have flipped to short from flat previously. Buxl has moved from very short to simply short. Last week saw a mix of short cover and long-setting.
  • OAT: Positioning has edged away from short territory to flat since our last update, with longs set last week.
  • GILT: Positioning moved close to long territory in our last biweekly update; it remains flat but has moved closer to shorts. Short cover was seen last week.
  • BTP: Structural positioning is no longer the shortest in our matrix (all four German contracts are in shorter territory), but remains short. Last week saw short covering.

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