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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Liquidating Longs

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Bond market volatility late last week including an unexpectedly hawkish US Fed meeting saw longs reduced almost across the board (OI and prices both lower) in the European futures space. This has left most contracts with either structural shorts or "flat", with no structural longs.

Our full Pi analysis is available here:

MNIPi21Jun2021.pdf

  • GERMANY: Prior to our last update pre-roll (on May 27), most German contracts were in "short" territory - since then there hasn't been much change, though perhaps most notable is the reduction in structural shorts in Bobl and the reduction of longs in Buxl, with the move especially pronounced last week. Schatz is short/very short.
  • OAT: Positioning has moved off extreme short territory pre-rolls to merely "short" in the past couple of weeks.
  • GILT: Positioning has edged shorter in the past few weeks, with short positioning on the edge of an extreme (only Schatz is shorter).
  • BTP: have seen a decent move away from short territory since late May, with current positioning flat.


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