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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Pre-Roll Short Cover
MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Pre-Roll Short Cover
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- With the quarterly rolls about to get underway for Eurex contracts (Sep 7th 1st notice date), structural positioning is flat for the most part, with short cover prevalent last week.
- Shifts in positioning have been sizeable in the past few weeks, with some longs emerging where shorts existed not long ago, including in our last biweekly update on Aug 15.
Full PDF Analysis:
- GERMANY: With all German contracts seeing short cover in the past week, Schatz stands out for its structural positioning at long versus short as recently as July. Bund is now flat vs short previously, while Bobl has pulled back from structural long territory to sit flat, along Buxl (unchanged at flat).
- OAT: OAT, after a spell in flat territory, has returned to structurally short. There was some short covering evident in the latest week.
- GILT: Gilts are nominally in flat structural positioning but we would discount current readings as a result of distortions amid the quarterly roll (front contract is now Dec).
- BTP: BTP structural positioning remains in long territory, in contrast to flat for most of the prior 4-5 months. Trade in the latest week was indicative of further long setting.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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